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Dynamic Decision Making when Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience

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Author Info

  • Michèle Cohen
  • Johanna Etner
  • Meglena Jeleva

    ()

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to propose a preferences representation model under risk where risk perception can be past experience dependent. A first step consists in considering a one period decision problem where individual preferences are no more defined only on decisions but on pairs (decision, past experience). The obtained criterion is used in the construction of a dynamic choice model under risk. The paper ends with an illustrative example concerning insurance demand. Itappears that our model allows to explain modifications in the insurance demand behavior over time observed on the insurance markets for catastrophic risk and difficult to justify with standard models.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11238-007-9061-3
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Theory and Decision.

Volume (Year): 64 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 173-192

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Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:173-192

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100341

Related research

Keywords: dynamic decision making; past experience; rank dependent utility model; recursive model; risk perception;

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References

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  1. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, 06.
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  8. Browne, Mark J & Hoyt, Robert E, 2000. " The Demand for Flood Insurance: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 291-306, May.
  9. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  10. McClelland, Gary H & Schulze, William D & Coursey, Don L, 1993. " Insurance for Low-Probability Hazards: A Bimodal Response to Unlikely Events," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 95-116, August.
  11. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1997. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," Working Papers 97-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
  13. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S251-78, October.
  14. Quiggin, John, 1991. " Comparative Statics for Rank-Dependent Expected Utility Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 339-50, December.
  15. Ganderton, Philip T, et al, 2000. " Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 271-89, May.
  16. Machina, Mark J, 1989. "Dynamic Consistency and Non-expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1622-68, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Langlais, Eric, 2009. "les criminels aiment-ils le risque ?
    [Are criminals risk-seeking individulas ?]    ," MPRA Paper 14892, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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