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An exploration of the offset hypothesis using disaggregate data: The case of airbags and antilock brakes

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  • Clifford Winston

    ()

  • Vikram Maheshri
  • Fred Mannering

Abstract

The offset hypothesis predicts consumers adapt to innovations that improve safety by becoming less vigilant about safety. Previous tests have used aggregate data that may confound the effect of a safety policy with those consumers who are most affected by it. We test the hypothesis using disaggregate data to analyze the effects of airbags and antilock brakes on automobile safety. We find that safety-conscious drivers are more likely than other drivers to acquire airbags and antilock brakes but these safety devices do not have a significant effect on collisions or injuries, suggesting drivers trade off enhanced safety for speedier trips. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-006-8288-7
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Risk and Uncertainty.

Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 83-99

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:32:y:2006:i:2:p:83-99

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100299

Related research

Keywords: Offsetting behavior; Automobile safety; Airbags;

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References

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  1. Steven D. Levitt & Jack Porter, 1999. "Sample Selection in the Estimation of Air Bag and Seat Belt Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 7210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 347-368, August.
  3. Sen, Anindya, 2001. "An Empirical Test of the Offset Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(2), pages 481-510, October.
  4. Peterson, Steven & Hoffer, George & Millner, Edward, 1995. "Are Drivers of Air-Bag-Equipped Cars More Aggressive? A Test of the Offsetting Behavior Hypothesis," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 251-64, October.
  5. Alma Cohen & Liran Einav, 2003. "The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 828-843, November.
  6. Peltzman, Sam, 1975. "The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(4), pages 677-725, August.
  7. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
  8. Mannering, Fred & Winston, Clifford, 1995. "Automobile Air Bags in the 1990s: Market Failure or Market Efficiency?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 265-79, October.
  9. McCarthy, Patrick S., 1999. "Public policy and highway safety: a city-wide perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 231-244, March.
  10. Robert S. Chirinko & Edward P. Harper, Jr., 1992. "Buckle-Up or Slow-Down? New Estimates of Offsetting Behavior and Their Implications for Automobile Safety Regulation," Working Papers 9207, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  11. Traynor, Thomas L, 1993. " The Peltzman Hypothesis Revisited: An Isolated Evaluation of Offsetting Driver Behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 237-47, October.
  12. Lindsay Noble Calkins & Thomas J. Zlatoper, 2001. "The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on Motor Vehicle Fatalities in the United States," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 82(4), pages 716-732.
  13. John M. Yun, 2002. "Offsetting Behavior Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 260-270, April.
  14. David W. Harless & George E. Hoffer, 2003. "Testing for Offsetting Behavior and Adverse Recruitment Among Drivers of Airbag-Equipped Vehicles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 629-650.
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Cited by:
  1. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2012. "Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising," MPRA Paper 37766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Xiong, Yingge & Mannering, Fred L., 2013. "The heterogeneous effects of guardian supervision on adolescent driver-injury severities: A finite-mixture random-parameters approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-54.
  3. Wilson, Nicholas L. & Xiong, Wentao & Mattson, Christine L., 2014. "Is sex like driving? HIV prevention and risk compensation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 78-91.
  4. Till GrĂ¼ne-Yanoff & Holger Rosencrantz, 2011. "Beneficial safety decreases," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 195-213, February.
  5. Gaudry, Marc & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2013. "Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 38-56.
  6. Nicholas Wilson & Wentao Xiong & Christine Mattson, 2011. "Is Sex Like Driving? Risk Compensation Associated with Randomized Male Circumcision in Kisumu, Kenya," Center for Development Economics 2011-09, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jan 2012.

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