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Uncertainty, learning and international environmental policy coordination

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  • Alistair Ulph
  • David Maddison

Abstract

In this paper we construct a simple model of global warming which captures a number of key features of the global warming problem: (i) environmental damages are related to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; (ii) the global commons nature of the problem means that these are strategic interactions between the emissions policies of the governments of individual nation states; (iii) there is uncertainty about the extent of the future damages that will be incurred by each country from any given level of concentration of greenhouse gases but there is the possibility that at a future date better information about the true extent of environmental damages may become available; an important aspect of the problem is the extent to which damages in different countries may be correlated. In the first part of the paper we consider a simple model with two symmetric countries and show that the value of perfect information is an increasing function of the correlation between damages in the two countries in both the cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria. However, while the value of perfect information is always non-negative in the cooperative equilibrium, in the non-cooperative equilibrium there is a critical value of the correlation coefficient below which the value of perfect information will be negative. In the second part of the paper we construct an empirical model of global warming distinguishing between OECD and non-OECD countries and show that in the non-cooperative equilibrium the value of perfect information for OECD countries is negative when the correlation coefficient between environmental damages for OECD and non-OECD countries is negative. The implications of these results for international agreements are discussed. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

Suggested Citation

  • Alistair Ulph & David Maddison, 1997. "Uncertainty, learning and international environmental policy coordination," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(4), pages 451-466, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:9:y:1997:i:4:p:451-466
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02441761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Golombek, R. & Hagem, C. & Hoel, M., 1993. "The Disign of a Carbon Tax in an Incomplete International Climate Agreement," Memorandum 1993_001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > International agreements

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Toman, 1998. "Research Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 603-621, April.
    2. Dellink, Rob & Finus, Michael, 2012. "Uncertainty and climate treaties: Does ignorance pay?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 565-584.
    3. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    4. Baker, Erin, 2005. "Uncertainty and learning in a strategic environment: global climate change," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 19-40, January.
    5. Finus, Michael & Pintassilgo, Pedro, 2013. "The role of uncertainty and learning for the success of international climate agreements," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-43.
    6. Boucher, Vincent & Bramoullé, Yann, 2010. "Providing global public goods under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 591-603, October.
    7. Michael Finus & Pedro Pintassilgo & Alistair Ulph, 2014. "International Environmental Agreements with Uncertainty, Learning and Risk Aversion," Department of Economics Working Papers 19/14, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    8. Köke, Sonja & Lange, Andreas, 2017. "Negotiating environmental agreements under ratification constraints," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 90-106.
    9. Nahid Masoudi & Marc Santugini & Georges Zaccour, 2016. "A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(3), pages 349-372, July.
    10. Sudhir A. Shah, 2006. "A Non-Cooperative Theory Of Quantity-Rationing International Transfrontier Pollution," Working papers 143, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    11. Wietze Lise & Richard Tol, 2004. "Attainability of International Environmental Agreements as a Social Situation," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 253-277, September.
    12. In Hwang & Frédéric Reynès & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate Policy Under Fat-Tailed Risk: An Application of Dice," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 56(3), pages 415-436, November.
    13. Charles Kolstad & Alistair Ulph, 2011. "Uncertainty, Learning and Heterogeneity in International Environmental Agreements," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 50(3), pages 389-403, November.
    14. Alistair Ulph & Pedro Pintassilgo & Michael Finus, 2019. "Uncertainty, Learning and International Environmental Agreements: The Role of Risk Aversion," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1165-1196, August.
    15. Michael FinusAlistair Ulph & Alistair Ulph, 2013. "International Environmental Agreements with Uncertainty, Learning and Risk Aversion," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1329, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Sudhir A. Shah, 2004. "Allocations and manipulation in Kyoto type protocols," Working papers 125, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    17. Kuusela, Olli-Pekka & Laiho, Tuomas, 2020. "The role of research in common pool problems," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    18. Köke, Sonja & Lange, Andreas, 2013. "Negotiating Environmental Agreements under Ratification Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79952, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Rob Dellink & Michael Finus & Niels Olieman, 2008. "The stability likelihood of an international climate agreement," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 39(4), pages 357-377, April.
    20. Sudhir A. Shah, 2010. "A Noncooperative Quantity‐Rationing Theory of Transboundary Pollution," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(3), pages 437-470, June.
    21. Xiao, Bowen & Fan, Ying & Guo, Xiaodan, 2021. "Dynamic interactive effect and co-design of SO2 emission tax and CO2 emission trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

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