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Returns on Investments in Energy-saving Technologies Under Energy Price Uncertainty in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture

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Author Info

  • Paul Diederen

    ()

  • Frank van Tongeren
  • Hennie van der Veen

Abstract

Conventional net presentvalue calculations evaluating the profitabilityof investments in energy-saving technologies inDutch horticultural outlays predict a muchhigher rate of adoption of these technologiesthan is actually observed. This paper tries toexplain this gap by applying a real optionsframework. Hurdle rates for investments in twotypes of energy-saving technology are estimatedusing simulated future revenue streams, givenuncertainty regarding energy prices and energytax policies. Hurdle rates found in this wayare on average about 1.76 times the hurdlerates that result from net present valuecalculations. Furthermore, this paper tests thepredictive value of the theory by estimating alogit model. This model relates the incidenceof having invested in an energy-savingtechnology to the difference between the returnon investment and the hurdle rate. Thepredictive power turns out to be encouraging,as the statistical tests indicate that higherhurdle rates tend to reduce rates of technologyadoption. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 379-394

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:379-394

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

Related research

Keywords: energy saving; horticulture; real options; simulation; technology adoption; uncertainty;

References

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  1. de Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes, 1998. "Energy efficiency and the limits of market forces: The example of the electric motor market in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 643-653, July.
  2. Sanstad, Alan H & Blumstein, Carl & Stoft, Steven E, 1995. "How high are option values in energy-efficiency investments?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 739-743, September.
  3. Hassett, Kevin A. & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1993. "Energy conservation investment : Do consumers discount the future correctly?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 710-716, June.
  4. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1998. "The efficiency paradox: bureaucratic and organizational barriers to profitable energy-saving investments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 441-454, April.
  5. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
  6. Daan van Soest & Erwin Bulte, 2001. "Does the Energy-Efficiency Paradox Exist? Technological Progress and Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 101-112, January.
  7. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. LOFGREN Asa & MILLOCK Katrin & NAUGES Céline, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments - An application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," LERNA Working Papers 07.06.227, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  2. Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges & Åsa Löfgren, 2007. "Using Ex Post Data to Estimate the Hurdle Rate of Abatement Investments – An Application to the Swedish Pulp and Paper Industry and Energy Sector," Post-Print halshs-00272041, HAL.
  3. Löfgren, Åsa & Millock, Katrin & Nauges, Céline, 2008. "The effect of uncertainty on pollution abatement investments: Measuring hurdle rates for Swedish industry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 475-491, December.
  4. Aramyan, Lusine H. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Verstegen, Jos A.A.M., 2005. "Investments in Energy-Saving Systems in Dutch Horticultural Farms," 15th Congress, Campinas SP, Brazil, August 14-19, 2005 24285, International Farm Management Association.
  5. Li, Shoude, 2013. "Emission permit banking, pollution abatement and production–inventory control of the firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 679-685.
  6. Hammar, Henrik & Löfgren, Åsa, 2007. "Explaining adoption of end of pipe solutions and clean technologies," Working Paper 102, National Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Åsa Löfgren & Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges, 2008. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry," Post-Print halshs-00343702, HAL.
  8. Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2006. "Energy Conservation in the United States: Understanding its Role in Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 12272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Åsa Löfgren & Katrin Millock & Céline Nauges, 2008. "Using ex post data to estimate the hurdle rate of abatement investments - an application to sulfur emissions from the Swedish pulp and paper industry and energy sector," Post-Print halshs-00261523, HAL.
  10. Greene, David L., 2011. "Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 608-616, July.
  11. Oskam, Arie J. & Goncharova, Natalia V. & Verstegen, Jos A.A.M., 2009. "The decision to invest and the investment level: An application to Dutch glasshouse horticulture firms," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. Tobias Fleitera & Joachim Schleich & Ployplearn Ravivanpong, 2012. "Adoption of energy-efficiency measures in SMEs - An empirical analysis based on energy audit data," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) hal-00805748, HAL.
  13. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2009. "An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 680-685, February.

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