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An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

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  • Svensson, Elin
  • Berntsson, Thore
  • Strömberg, Ann-Brith
  • Patriksson, Michael
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    Abstract

    Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-4V1FBXR-1/2/b900f1d46a876849de39c349a7e58460
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 680-685

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:2:p:680-685

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

    Related research

    Keywords: Stochastic programming Process integration Investment planning;

    References

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    1. Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004. "Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production," CEPE Working paper series 04-37, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
    2. John R. Birge & Charles H. Rosa, 1996. "Incorporating Investment Uncertainty into Greenhouse Policy Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 79-89.
    3. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    4. Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
    5. Paul Diederen & Frank van Tongeren & Hennie van der Veen, 2003. "Returns on Investments in Energy-saving Technologies Under Energy Price Uncertainty in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(4), pages 379-394, April.
    6. Laurikka, Harri, 2006. "Option value of gasification technology within an emissions trading scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3916-3928, December.
    7. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rentizelas, Athanasios A. & Tolis, Athanasios I. & Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P., 2012. "Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 622-629.
    2. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A., 2011. "An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3791-3806.
    3. Tolis, Athanasios & Doukelis, Aggelos & Tatsiopoulos, Ilias, 2010. "Stochastic interest rates in the analysis of energy investments: Implications on economic performance and sustainability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2479-2490, August.

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