Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis
AbstractIn this paper, we apply a spread-based real options approach to analyze the decision-making problem of an investor who has the choice between an irreversible investment in a condensing power plant without heat utilization and a plant with combined heat-and-power (CHP) generation. Our investigation focuses on large-scale fossil-fueled generation technologies and is based on a stochastic model that uses copula functions to provide the input parameter of the real options model. We define the aggregated annual spread as assessment criteria for our investigation since it contains all relevant volatile input parameters that have an impact on the evaluation of investment decisions. We show that the specific characteristics of CHP plants, such as additional revenues from heat sales, promotion schemes, specific operational features, and a beneficial allocation of CO2 allowances, have a significant impact on the option value and therefore on the optimal timing for investment. For the two fossil-fueled CHP technologies investigated (combined-cycle gas turbine and steam turbine), we conclude from our analysis that a high share of CHP generation reduces the risk exposure for the investor. The maximal possible CHP generation depends significantly on the local heat demand in the surroundings of the power plant. Considering this, the size of the heat sink available could gain more relevance in the future selection process of sites for new large-scale fossil power plants.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 12/2010.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Combined heat and power; Real options; Investment under uncertainty; Copula function;
Other versions of this item:
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
- C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1986.
"Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm,"
NBER Working Papers
1980, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1986. "Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm," Working papers 1802-86., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Keles, Dogan & Möst, Dominik & Fichtner, Wolf, 2011. "The development of the German energy market until 2030--A critical survey of selected scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 812-825, February.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010.
"The benefit of regional diversification of cogeneration investments in Europe: A mean-variance portfolio analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7911-7920, December.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2009. "The Benefit of Regional Diversification of Cogeneration Investments in Europe: A Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis," FCN Working Papers 5/2009, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Mar 2010.
- Roques, F.A. & Savva , N.S., 2006. "Price Cap Regulation and Investment Incentives under Demand Uncertainty," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0636, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrea Bastianin, 2009. "Modelling Asymmetric Dependence Using Copula Functions: An application to Value-at-Risk in the Energy Sector," Working Papers 2009.24, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008.
"A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies,"
Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
- Gürkan Kumbaroglu & Reinhard Madlener & Mustafa Demirel, 2004. "A Real Options Evaluation Model for the Diffusion Prospects of New Renewable Power Generation Technologies," CEPE Working paper series 04-35, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004.
"Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments,"
0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004.
"Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production,"
CEPE Working paper series
04-37, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Murto, Pauli & Nese, Gjermund, 2002. "Input price risk and optimal timing of energy investment: choice between fossil- and biofuels," Working Papers in Economics 15/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
- Geoffrey Rothwell, 2006. "A Real Options Approach to Evaluating New Nuclear Power Plants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 87-54.
- Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
- Yang, Ming & Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom, 2008. "Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1933-1950, July.
- Yongmiao Hong & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2006. "Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Statistical Tests and Economic Evaluation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1547-1581, 2007 23.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
- Sundberg, Gunnel & Sjodin, Jorgen, 2003. "Project financing consequences on cogeneration: industrial plant and municipal utility co-operation in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 491-503, May.
- Denault, Michel & Dupuis, Debbie & Couture-Cardinal, Sébastien, 2009. "Complementarity of hydro and wind power: Improving the risk profile of energy inflows," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5376-5384, December.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1993.
"Investments of Uncertain Cost,"
NBER Working Papers
4175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
- Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2009. "Forward curves, scarcity and price volatility in oil and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 576-585, July.
- Pahle, Michael, 2010. "Germany's dash for coal: Exploring drivers and factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3431-3442, July.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2010. "Gas-fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and CO2 capture," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 805-816, July.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael & Schnabl, Alexander, 2005. "Real options and the value of generation capacity in the German electricity market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 297-310.
- Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Preferences for Adopting Residential Heating Systems: A Discrete Choice Analysis for Germany," FCN Working Papers 9/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
- Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Yasin Sunak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.