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The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods

Author

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  • Eugenio Zucchelli

    (Centre for Health Economics (CHE), University of York, UK; Alcuin A Block, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Andrew M Jones

    (Department of Economics and Related Studies (DERS), University of York, UK;)

  • Nigel Rice

    (Centre for Health Economics (CHE), University of York, UK; Alcuin A Block, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK)

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of microsimulation as a method to evaluate health and health care policies and interventions. After presenting a brief survey of microsimulation models and applications we describe the main features of the approach and how these are implemented in practice. We pay particular attention to the innovative features of dynamic microsimulation as a method of ex-ante policy evaluation. The final section presents a critical overview of the most recent health-dedicated dynamic microsimulation models including POHEM and FEM, two of the most comprehensive dynamic microsimulation models for health. We describe how these models are used to simulate lifecycle health trajectories and associated health care costs under competing policy scenarios to illustrate the power of microsimulation as a valid and relevant tool for policy evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:5:y:2012:i:1:p:2-20
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    microsimulation methods; policy evaluation; health; public health interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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