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Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure, a dynamic micro-simulation using the Destinie model

Author

Listed:
  • C. GEAY

    (Direction Générale du Trésor)

  • M. KOUBI

    (Insee)

  • G. de LAGASNERIE

    (Direction Générale du Trésor)

Abstract

The expenditures to cover the risk of illness, which amounted 3.4% of GDP in 1960, reached almost 12% in 2011: their share is comparable to the one of pensions expenditures. In this context, the evolution of health expenditures is an important parameter for ageing economies, which face more and more pressure on public finances. This study offers a first projection of these expenditures (outpatient care and medical goods) on a microeconomic basis. Such a model allows to complement macroeconomic analyses because it anticipates the changes in health expenditures due to socio-demographic changes in France until 2060 and, hence, to help defining public policies. The increase of outpatient care expenditure until 2060 depends on the hypotheses about life expectancy, and especially its sharing between good and bad health. The variation of time spent in good health after 60 years old is bigger across education level than between men and women. After 60, women, and especially very educated women, spend more years in bad health than the others.

Suggested Citation

  • C. GEAY & M. KOUBI & G. de LAGASNERIE, 2015. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure, a dynamic micro-simulation using the Destinie model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2015-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:nse:doctra:g2015-15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health; projections; microsimulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality

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