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Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029

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  • Sophie Thiébaut

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SESSTIM - U912 INSERM - Aix Marseille Univ - IRD - Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale)

  • Thomas Barnay

    (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)

  • B Ventelou

    (SESSTIM - U912 INSERM - Aix Marseille Univ - IRD - Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, ORS PACA, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. The healthy ageing assumptions may lead to substantial changes in paths of aggregate health care expenditure, notably catastrophic expenditure of people at the end of the life. But clear assessments of involved amounts are not available when we specifically consider ambulatory care (as drug expenditure) generally offered to chronically-ill people. We estimate the effects of epidemiological and life expectancy changes on French health expenditure until 2029 by applying a Markovian micro-simulation model from a nationally representative database. The originality of these simulations holds in using an aggregate indicator of morbidity–mortality, capturing vital risk and making it possible to adapt the quantification of life expectancies by taking into account the presence of severe chronic pathologies. We forecast future national drugs expenditure, under different epidemiological scenarios of chronic morbidity: trend scenario, healthy ageing scenario and medical progress scenario. For the population aged 25+, results predict an increase in reimbursable drug expenditure of between 1.1% and 1.8% (annual growth rate), attributable solely to the ageing population and changes in health status.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie Thiébaut & Thomas Barnay & B Ventelou, 2013. "Ageing, chronic conditions and the evolution of future drugs expenditure: a five-year micro-simulation from 2004 to 2029," Post-Print hal-01297821, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01297821
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.633895
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. C. GEAY & M. KOUBI & G. de LAGASNERIE, 2015. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure, a dynamic micro-simulation using the Destinie model," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2015-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    2. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on economic growth: an in-depth bibliometric analysis," FEP Working Papers 505, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    3. Phill O’Neill & Jorge Mestre-Ferrandiz & Ruth Puig-Peiro & Jon Sussex, 2013. "Projecting Expenditure on Medicines in the UK NHS," PharmacoEconomics, Springer, vol. 31(10), pages 933-957, October.
    4. Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Anne Rosemary Mason, 2020. "Trends in and drivers of healthcare expenditure in the English NHS: a retrospective analysis," Health Economics Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2015. "Intégrer les dépenses de santé dans un modèle de microsimulation dynamique : le cas des dépenses de soins de ville," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 211-234.
    6. Shangmei Zhao & Jiang He & Haijun Yang, 2018. "Population Ageing, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Thach Ngoc Pham & Duc Hong Vo, 2021. "Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 108-122, January.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5cg3fnvgpv8u5peaglp6lrkkaq is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    10. Charlotte Geay & Grégoire de Lagasnerie & Makram Larguem, 2014. "Evolution of outpatient healthcare expenditure due to ageing in 2030, a dynamic micro-simulation model for France," Sciences Po publications 28, Sciences Po.
    11. Paula M. Murray & Yusuf A. Shalaby & Luciano Ieraci & Emmett Borg & Daphne Sniekers & Ali Vahit Esensoy & Jessica Arias, 2020. "Forecasting Ontario Oncology Drug Expenditures: A Hybrid Approach to Improving Accuracy," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 127-137, February.
    12. Anne Mason & Idaira Rodriguez Santana & María José Aragón & Nigel Rice & Martin Chalkley & Raphael Wittenberg & Jose-Luis Fernandez, 2019. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Final report," Working Papers 169cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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