Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporating external information
AbstractIn practical applications of micro simulation models very little is usually known about the properties of the simulated values. This paper argues that we need to apply the same rigorous standards for inference in micro simulation work as in scientific work generally. If not, then micro simulation models will loose in credibility. The paper first discusses how the structure of the model will determine inference and then follow sections on estimation and validation. Differences between inference in static and dynamic models are noted and then the paper focuses on the estimation of behavioral parameters. There are three themes: calibration viewed as estimation subject to external constraints, piece meal vs. system-wide estimation, and simulation based estimation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 1998:20.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 2002, pages 255-265.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
More information through EDIRC
Micro simulation; Alignment; Calibration; System-wide estimation; Simulation-based estimation;
Other versions of this item:
- Anders Klevmarken, N., 2002. "Statistical inference in micro-simulation models: incorporating external information," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 255-265.
- Klevmarken, N.A., 1998. "Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporationg External Information," Papers 1998:20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1998-11-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-1998-11-23 (Econometrics)
- NEP-TID-1998-11-20 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
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- Pasquale Cirillo & Carlo Bianchi & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2006.
"Validating and Calibrating Agent-based Models: a Case Study,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
277, Society for Computational Economics.
- Carlo Bianchi & Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati & Pietro Vagliasindi, 2007. "Validating and Calibrating Agent-Based Models: A Case Study," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 245-264, October.
- GoedemÃ©, Tim & Van den Bosch, Karel & Salanauskaite, Lina & Verbist, Gerlinde, 2013.
"Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: Often Easier than You Think. A Technical Note,"
EUROMOD Working Papers
em18/13, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
- Tim Goedemé & Karel Van den Bosch & Lina Salanauskaite & Gerlinde Verbist, 2013. "Testing the Statistical Significance of Microsimulation Results: Often Easier than You Think. A Technical Note," ImPRovE Working Papers 13/10, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
- Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
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"Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector,"
CAFO Working Papers
2009:5, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
- Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
- Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
- John Creedy, 2003. "Survey Reweighting for Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/17, New Zealand Treasury.
- Pasquale Cirillo & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "The Empirical Validation of an Agent-based Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 525-547.
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