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The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data

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  • Merz, Joachim
  • Hanglberger, Dominik
  • Rucha, Rafael

Abstract

Though consumption research provides a broad spectrum of theoretical and empirical founded results, studies based on a daily focus are missing. Knowledge about the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services, opens – beyond a genuine contribution to consumption research – interesting societal and macro economic as well as individual personal and firm perspectives: it is important for an efficient timely coordination of supply and demand in the timing perspective as well as for a targeted economic, social and societal policy for a better support of the every day coordination of life. Last not least, the individual daily public and private living situations will be visible, which are of particular importance for the social togetherness in family and society. Our study contributes to the timing of daily consumption for goods and services with an empirical founded microanalysis on the basis of more than 37.000 individual time use diaries of the nationwide Time Budget Survey of the German Federal Statistical Office 2001/02. We describe the individual timing of daily demand for goods and services for important socio-demographic groups like for women and men, the economic situation with income poverty and daily working hour arrangements. The multivariate microeconometric explanation of the daily demand for goods and services is based on a latent utility maximizing approach over a day. We estimate an eight equation Multivariate/Simultaneous Probit Model, which allows the decision for multiple consumption activities in more than one time period a day. The estimates quantify effects on the timing of daily demand by individual socio-economic variables, which encompasses, personal, household, regional characteristics as well as daily working hour arrangements within a flexible labour market. The question about individual effects of an aged society on the timing of daily demand for goods and services is analyzed with our microsimulation model ServSim and a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office. Main result: There are significant differences in explaining the timing of daily demand for goods compared to services on the one hand and in particular for different daily time periods. The conclusion: without the timing aspects an important and significant dimension for understanding individual consumption behaviour and their impacts on other individual living conditions would be missing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16303.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16303

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Keywords: timing of daily consumption/demand for goods and services; shopping hours; consumption and service activities; German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002; time use diaries; multivariate probit estimation; microsimulation model ServSim;

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References

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  1. Joachim Merz, 1994. "Microdata Adjustment by the Minimum Information Loss Principle," FFB-Discussionpaper 10, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  2. Joachim Merz & Paul Böhm & Dominik Hanglberger & J.F. Rafael Rucha & Henning Stolze, 2007. "Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim," FFB-Discussionpaper 70, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  3. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
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  5. Joachim Merz, 2002. "Time Use Research and Time Use Data – Actual Topics and New Frontiers," FFB-Discussionpaper 32, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  6. Merz, Joachim & Hanglberger, Dominik & Rucha, Rafael, 2009. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data," MPRA Paper 16303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  15. Ferris, J Stephen, 1990. "Time, Space, and Shopping: The Regulation of Shopping Hours," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 171-87, Spring.
  16. Pencavel, John, 1987. "Labor supply of men: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-102 Elsevier.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joachim Merz, 2009. "Time Use and Time Budge. Improvements, Future Challenges and Recommendations," Working Paper Series of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 85, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
  2. Merz, Joachim & Hanglberger, Dominik & Rucha, Rafael, 2009. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data," MPRA Paper 16303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Joachim Merz & Dominik Hanglberger & Rafael Rucha, 2011. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services - Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility and Extended Public Childcare in Germany," FFB-Discussionpaper 90, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  4. Fachinger, Uwe & Faik, Jürgen, 2010. "Ausgabenanalysen für Deutschland und Niedersachsen – Berechnungsergebnisse auf Basis der Einkommens‐ und Verbrauchsstichprobe 2003
    [Analysis of expenditures for Germany and Lower Saxony - Empi
    ," MPRA Paper 23269, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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