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The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services—Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility, and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

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  • Joachim Merz

    ()

  • Dominik Hanglberger
  • Rafael Rucha

Abstract

Knowledge about the timing of consumption opens new insights into consumption behaviour for consumer, economic, social as well as for communal and societal policies. It not only allows sound information for a better match of timely supply and demand but also about everyday living arrangements. This study contributes to the timing aspect of daily consumption by posing the question: how is the timing of daily demand for goods and services affected by major changes in German society? We concentrate on important and currently discussed developments and policies: the huge shift in Germany’s demographic structure with an aging society (with a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office), the deregulation and the further expansion in flexibility of the labour market and the current policy of extending public childcare support. For each aspect and policy we first describe the actual timing of daily demand for goods and services. With the microsimulation approach and different scenarios we then quantify the respective societal and policy impacts based on more than 37,000 time use diaries of the current German Time Budget Survey of 2001/2002.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10603-010-9126-5
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Consumer Policy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 119-141

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jcopol:v:33:y:2010:i:2:p:119-141

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100283

Related research

Keywords: Timing of daily demand; Consumer policy analysis by microsimulation; Aging society; Flexible working hours; Public childcare support;

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References

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  1. Merz, Joachim, 1991. "Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-104, May.
  2. Joachim Merz & Dominik Hanglberger & Rafael Rucha, 2009. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data," FFB-Discussionpaper 77, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  3. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-97, June.
  4. Jacobsen, Joyce P. & Kooreman, Peter, 2005. "Timing constraints and the allocation of time: The effects of changing shopping hours regulations in The Netherlands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 9-27, January.
  5. Joachim Merz & Paul Böhm & Dominik Hanglberger & J.F. Rafael Rucha & Henning Stolze, 2007. "Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim," FFB-Discussionpaper 70, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  6. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  7. Stephen J. Ferris, 1988. "Time, Space And Shopping: The Regulation Of Shopping Hours," Carleton Industrial Organization Research Unit (CIORU) 88-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  8. Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2002. "Timing, togetherness and time windfalls," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 601-623.
  9. Merz, Joachim & Böhm, Paul & Burgert, Derik, 2005. "Arbeitszeitarrangements und Entlohnung Ein Treatment-Effects-Ansatz für Freiberufler, Unternehmer und abhängig Beschäftigte," MPRA Paper 5970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Joachim Merz, 2002. "Time Use Research and Time Use Data – Actual Topics and New Frontiers," FFB-Discussionpaper 32, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  11. Joachim Merz, 1994. "Microdata Adjustment by the Minimum Information Loss Principle," FFB-Discussionpaper 10, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  12. Gershuny, Jonathan, 2003. "Changing Times: Work and Leisure in Postindustrial Society," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199261895, September.
  13. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1998. "When We Work," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 321-25, May.
  14. Skuterud, Mikal, 2005. "The impact of Sunday shopping on employment and hours of work in the retail industry: Evidence from Canada," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1953-1978, November.
  15. Merz, Joachim, 2002. "Time and Economic Well-Being--A Panel Analysis of Desired versus Actual Working Hours," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(3), pages 317-46, September.
  16. Merz, Joachim, 2009. "Time Use and Time Budgets: Improvements, Future Challenges and Recommendations," IZA Discussion Papers 4358, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Gronau, Reuben, 1987. "Home production -- A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 273-304 Elsevier.
  18. Hermann Buslei & Erika Schulz & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die private Nachfrage nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen in Deutschland bis 2050," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 26, number pbk26, July.
  19. repec:ese:iserwp:2000-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Raymond Gradus, 1996. "The economic effects of extending shop opening hours," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 247-263, October.
  21. Dominik Hanglberger, 2011. "Arbeitszufriedenheit im internationalen Vergleich," FFB-Discussionpaper 86, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
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Cited by:
  1. Wencke Gwozdz & Lucia Reisch & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Time Allocation, Consumption, and Consumer Policy," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 115-118, June.
  2. Tim Rathjen, 2011. "Do Time Poor Individuals Pay More?," FFB-Discussionpaper 91, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.

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