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Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim

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  • Merz, Joachim
  • Böhm, Paul
  • Hanglberger, Dominik
  • Rucha, Rafael
  • Stolze, Henning

Abstract

Ziel dieser Studie ist die empirisch fundierte Untersuchung der tageszeitlichen Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen. Datengrundlage hierfür ist die Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002 des Statistischen Bundesamtes. Den Rahmen für unsere Analyse bilden die neuen Regulierungen der Ladenschlusszeiten in Deutschland. Auf eine kurze Darstellung der historischen Entwicklung und der Diskussion über die Liberalisierung folgt eine deskriptive Analyse der vorgefundenen tageszeitliche Nachfragestruktur nach Serviceleistungen. Darauf aufbauend analysieren wir mit zwei alternativen Bevölkerungsszenarien des Statistischen Bundesamtes für die Jahre 2010 und 2020 das tageszeitliche Nachfrageverhalten für wichtige sozio-ökonomische Gruppen der Gesellschaft anhand unseres neuen Mikrosimulationsmodells ServSim. Für die multivariate Erklärung der tageszeitlichen Lage der Nachfrage nach Serviceleistungen ziehen wir insbesondere ein Rare-Events-Modell heran. Sowohl die deskriptiven Ergebnisse, die mikroökonometrischen Schätzergebnisse als auch die Ergebnisse der Simulationen liefern deutliche Unterschiede im tageszeitlichen Nachfrageverhalten besonders vor dem Hintergrund sozio-ökonomischer Differenzierungen der Gesellschaft.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5739.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5739

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Keywords: Tageszeitliches Nachfrageverhalten; Ladenöffnungszeiten; Serviceleistungen; Zeitbudgeterhebung 2001/2002; Rare Events Logit; ServSim;

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  1. Harvey, Andrew & Fisher, Kimberly & Gershuny, Jonathan & Akbari, Ather, 2000. "Examining working time arrangements using time use survey data," ISER Working Paper Series 2000-22, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1998. "When We Work," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 321-25, May.
  3. Hamermesh, Daniel S., 2000. "Timing, Togetherness and Time Windfalls," IZA Discussion Papers 173, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Pencavel, John, 1987. "Labor supply of men: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-102 Elsevier.
  5. Blundell, Richard & Macurdy, Thomas, 1999. "Labor supply: A review of alternative approaches," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1559-1695 Elsevier.
  6. Joachim Merz, 2002. "Time Use Research and Time Use Data – Actual Topics and New Frontiers," FFB-Discussionpaper, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg 32, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  7. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1999. "The Timing of Work over Time," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 37-66, January.
  8. Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Microdata Adjustment by the Minimum Information Loss Principle," MPRA Paper 7231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Killingsworth, Mark R. & Heckman, James J., 1987. "Female labor supply: A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 103-204 Elsevier.
  10. Merz, Joachim, 1991. "Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-104, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Merz, Joachim & Hanglberger, Dominik & Rucha, Rafael, 2009. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data," MPRA Paper 16303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Joachim Merz & Dominik Hanglberger & Rafael Rucha, 2011. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services - Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility and Extended Public Childcare in Germany," FFB-Discussionpaper, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg 90, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.

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