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The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services - Microsimulation Policy Results of an Aging Society, Increasing Labour Market Flexibility and Extended Public Childcare in Germany

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  • Joachim Merz
  • Dominik Hanglberger
  • Rafael Rucha

    ()
    (LEUPHANA University Lüneburg,Department of Economic, Behaviour and Law Sciences, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)))

Abstract

Knowledge about the timing of consumption opens new insights into consumption behaviour for consumer, economic, social as well as for communal and societal policies. It not only allows sound information for a better match of timely supply and demand but also about everyday living arrangements. This study contributes to the timing aspect of daily consumption by posing the question: how is the timing of daily demand for goods and services affected by major changes in German society? We concentrate on important and currently discussed developments and policies: the huge shift in Germany’s demographic structure with an aging society (with a population forecast for 2020 by the German Federal Statistical Office), the deregulation and the further expansion in flexibility of the labour market and the current policy of extending public childcare support. For each aspect and policy we first describe the actual timing of daily demand for goods and services. With the microsimulation approach and different scenarios we then quantify the respective societal and policy impacts based on more than 37,000 time use diaries of the current German Time Budget Survey of 2001/2002.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg in its series FFB-Discussionpaper with number 90.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:leu:wpaper:90

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Web page: http://ffb.uni-lueneburg.de/repec/leu/
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Keywords: timing of daily demand for goods and services; consumer policy analysis by microsimulation: aging society; deregulation of the labour market; flexible working hours; public childcare support; German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002;

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References

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  1. Merz, Joachim, 1991. "Microsimulation -- A survey of principles, developments and applications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 77-104, May.
  2. repec:ese:iserwp:2000-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Ferris, J Stephen, 1990. "Time, Space, and Shopping: The Regulation of Shopping Hours," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 171-87, Spring.
  4. Merz, Joachim & Böhm, Paul & Hanglberger, Dominik & Rucha, Rafael & Stolze, Henning, 2007. "Wann werden Serviceleistungen nachgefragt? – Ein Mikrosimulationsmodell alternativer Ladenöffnungszeiten mit Daten der Zeitbudgeterhebung ServSim," MPRA Paper 9034, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Hermann Buslei & Erika Schulz & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die private Nachfrage nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen in Deutschland bis 2050," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 26, number pbk26.
  6. Joachim, Merz, 2002. "Time Use Research and Time Use Data Actual Topics and New Frontiers," MPRA Paper 6347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1998. "When We Work," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 321-25, May.
  8. Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Microdata Adjustment by the Minimum Information Loss Principle," MPRA Paper 7231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Merz, Joachim & Hanglberger, Dominik & Rucha, Rafael, 2009. "The Timing of Daily Demand for Goods and Services – Multivariate Probit Estimates and Microsimulation Results for an Aged Population with German Time Use Diary Data," MPRA Paper 16303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Gronau, Reuben, 1987. "Home production -- A survey," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 273-304 Elsevier.
  11. Hamermesh, Daniel S., 2000. "Timing, Togetherness and Time Windfalls," IZA Discussion Papers 173, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Raymond Gradus, 1996. "The economic effects of extending shop opening hours," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 247-263, October.
  13. Jacobsen, Joyce P. & Kooreman, Peter, 2005. "Timing constraints and the allocation of time: The effects of changing shopping hours regulations in The Netherlands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 9-27, January.
  14. Robert E. Hall, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Blundell, Richard & Pashardes, Panos & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "What Do We Learn About Consumer Demand Patterns from Micro Data?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 570-97, June.
  16. Skuterud, Mikal, 2005. "The impact of Sunday shopping on employment and hours of work in the retail industry: Evidence from Canada," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1953-1978, November.
  17. Dominik Hanglberger, 2011. "Arbeitszufriedenheit im internationalen Vergleich," FFB-Discussionpaper 86, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  18. Gershuny, Jonathan, 2003. "Changing Times: Work and Leisure in Postindustrial Society," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199261895.
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Cited by:
  1. Tim Rathjen, 2011. "Do Time Poor Individuals Pay More?," FFB-Discussionpaper 91, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
  2. Wencke Gwozdz & Lucia Reisch & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010. "Time Allocation, Consumption, and Consumer Policy," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 115-118, June.

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