The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods
Abstract
This paper presents an overview of microsimulation as a method to evaluate health and health care policies and interventions. After presenting a brief survey of microsimulation models and applications we describe the main features of the approach and how these are implemented in practice. We pay particular attention to the innovative features of dynamic microsimulation as a method of ex-ante policy evaluation. The final section describes two leading microsimulation models, POHEM and FEM used to simulate lifecycle health trajectories and associated health care costs under competing policy scenarios to illustrate the power of microsimulation as a valid and relevant tool for policy evaluation.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York in its series Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers with number 10/03.Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:10/03
Contact details of provider:
Postal: HEDG/HERC, Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 323776
Fax: (0)1904 323759
Email:
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/res/herc/research/hedg/
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords: Microsimulation methods; policy evaluation; health; public health interventions;Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P Grootendorst & D Feeny & W Furlong, 1999. "Health Utilities Index Mark 3: Evidence of Construct Validity for Stroke and Arthritis in a Population Health Survey," Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series 1999-06, Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis (CHEPA), McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
- James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August.
- Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Ex Ante Policy Evaluation, Structural Estimation and Model Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 48-52, May.
- Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
- Annie Abello & Sharyn Lymer & Laurie Brown & Ann Harding & Ben Phillips, 2008. "Enhancing the Australian National Health Survey Data for Use in a Microsimulation Model of Pharmaceutical Drug Usage and Cost," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 2.
- M. Keane & R. Mofitt, 1995.
"A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply,"
Working Papers
95-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
- M. Keane & R. Moffitt, . "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1080-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Michael P. Keane & Robert Moffitt, 1995. "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Working Papers 557, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb & Yi-Ping Tseng & Ha Vu, 2008.
"The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation,"
Fiscal Studies,
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 285-325, 06.
- Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb & Yi-Ping Tseng & Hong Ha Vu, 2005. "The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Sole Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n10, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Sonsbeek, J.M. van & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2005.
"A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0012, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- van Sonsbeek, J.M. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2006. "A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-456, May.
- Atkinson, A. B. & Bouguignon, F. & Chiappori, P. A., 1988. "What do we learn about tax reform from international comparisons? France and Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 343-352, March.
- José Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, 2008.
"Discrete choice models of labour supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms,"
Journal of Economic Inequality,
Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 247-273, September.
- José M. Labeaga, Xisco Oliver & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, . "Discrete choice models of labour Supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms," Working Papers 2005-14, FEDEA.
- José M. Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amadéo Spadaro, 2005. "Discrete choice models of labour suppluy, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reform," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590836, HAL.
- Tim Callan & Arthur Van Soest, 1996.
"Family Labour Supply and Taxes in Ireland,"
Papers
WP078, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Callan, T. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1994. "Family labour supply and taxes in Ireland," Discussion Paper 1994-26, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Amedeo spadaro, 2003.
"Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: an Application to some EU Tax-Benefits System,"
DELTA Working Papers
2003-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Amedeo Spadaro, 2005. "Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: An Application to Some EU Tax Benefits Systems," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(4), pages 593-622, October.
- Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2007. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar: Learning from a microsimulation model in a general equilibrium framework," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/5124, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Atkinson, Tony, et al, 2002. "Microsimulation of Social Policy in the European Union: Case Study of a European Minimum Pension," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(274), pages 229-43, May.
- Baldini, Massimo & Beltrametti, Luca, 2007. "Distributive Implications of Long Term Care Policies: An International Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 1-31.
- Andren, Thomas, 2003. "The choice of paid childcare, welfare, and labor supply of single mothers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 133-147, April.
- Klevmarken, N. Anders & Bolin, Kristian & Eklöf, Matias & Flood, Lennart & Fransson, Urban & Hallberg, Daniel & Höjgård, Sören & Lindgren, Björn & Mitrut, Andrea & Lagergren, Mårten, 2007. "Simulating the future of the Swedish baby-boom generations," Working Paper Series 2007:26, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Klevmarken, N.A., 1997.
"Behavioral Modeling in Micro Simulation Models. A Survey,"
Papers
1997-31, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- N. Anders Klevmarken, 1997. "Behavioral Modeling in Micro Simulation Models. A Survey," Working Paper Series 1997:31, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003.
"Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation,"
Treasury Working Paper Series
03/20, New Zealand Treasury.
- John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
- John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Grimm, M., 2005. "Educational policies and poverty reduction in Cote d'Ivoire," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 231-247, March.
- Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
- Creedy, John & Duncan, Alan, 2002. " Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
- Klevmarken, N.A., 1998.
"Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporationg External Information,"
Papers
1998:20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Klevmarken, N. Anders, 1998. "Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporating external information," Working Paper Series 1998:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Brewer, M. & Duncan, A. & Shephard, A. & Suarez, M.J., 2005. "Did working families' tax credit work? The final evaluation of the impact of in-work support on parents' labour supply and take-up behaviour in the UK," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Alberto Martini & Ugo Trivellato, 1997. "The Role of Survey Data in Microsimulation Models for Social Policy Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(1), pages 83-112, 04.
- Elisa Baroni & Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Orcutt’s Vision, 50 years on," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 65, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
- Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2012.
"CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System,"
Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP)
0048, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
- Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2008. "CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System," Department of Economics 0595, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
- Callan, Tim & Sutherland, Holly, 1997. "The impact of comparable policies in European countries: Microsimulation approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 627-633, April.
- Ann Harding & Richard Percival & Deborah Schofield & Agnes Walker, 2002. "The Lifetime Distributional Impact of Government Health Outlays," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(4), pages 363-379.
- Asghar Zaidi & Tania Burchardt, 2005. "Comparing Incomes When Needs Differ: Equivalization For The Extra Costs Of Disability In The U.K," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 89-114, 03.
- Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
- Pudney, Stephen & Sutherland, Holly, 1994. "How reliable are microsimulation results? : An analysis of the role of sampling error in a U.K. tax-benefit model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 327-365, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 002, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology.
- Laurie Brown, 2011. "Editorial - Special Issue on Health," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(3), pages 1-2.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:10/03For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Rawlings).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

