IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/yor/hectdg/10-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods

Author

Listed:
  • Zucchelli, E
  • Jones, A.M
  • Rice, N

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of microsimulation as a method to evaluate health and health care policies and interventions. After presenting a brief survey of microsimulation models and applications we describe the main features of the approach and how these are implemented in practice. We pay particular attention to the innovative features of dynamic microsimulation as a method of ex-ante policy evaluation. The final section describes two leading microsimulation models, POHEM and FEM used to simulate lifecycle health trajectories and associated health care costs under competing policy scenarios to illustrate the power of microsimulation as a valid and relevant tool for policy evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:10/03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/herc/wp/10_03.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
    2. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb & Yi-Ping Tseng & Ha Vu, 2008. "The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 285-325, June.
    3. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
    4. Callan, T. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1994. "Family labour supply and taxes in Ireland," Other publications TiSEM f58e0a56-60c1-4f81-b11b-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Glasgow, R.E. & Vogt, T.M. & Boles, S.M., 1999. "Evaluating the public health impact of health promotion interventions: The RE-AIM framework," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(9), pages 1322-1327.
    6. Amedeo Spadaro, 2005. "Micro‐simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: An Application to Some EU Tax Benefits Systems," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(4), pages 593-622, October.
    7. Atkinson, Tony, et al, 2002. "Microsimulation of Social Policy in the European Union: Case Study of a European Minimum Pension," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 69(274), pages 229-243, May.
    8. Baldini, Massimo & Beltrametti, Luca, 2007. "Distributive Implications of Long Term Care Policies: An International Comparison," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 60(1), pages 1-31.
    9. Andren, Thomas, 2003. "The choice of paid childcare, welfare, and labor supply of single mothers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 133-147, April.
    10. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
    12. van Sonsbeek, J.M. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2006. "A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-456, May.
    13. Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2008. "CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System," Department of Economics 0595, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    14. Brewer, Mike & Duncan, Alan & Shephard, Andrew & Suarez, Maria Jose, 2006. "Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-720, December.
    15. James J. Heckman, 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 673-748, August.
    16. Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2007. "Ex Ante Policy Evaluation, Structural Estimation and Model Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 48-52, May.
    17. Annie Abello & Sharyn Lymer & Laurie Brown & Ann Harding & Ben Phillips, 2008. "Enhancing the Australian National Health Survey Data for Use in a Microsimulation Model of Pharmaceutical Drug Usage and Cost," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    18. José Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, 2008. "Discrete choice models of labour supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(3), pages 247-273, September.
    19. Klevmarken, N. Anders & Bolin, Kristian & Eklöf, Matias & Flood, Lennart & Fransson, Urban & Hallberg, Daniel & Höjgård, Sören & Lindgren, Björn & Mitrut, Andrea & Lagergren, Mårten, 2007. "Simulating the future of the Swedish baby-boom generations," Working Paper Series 2007:26, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    20. Grimm, M., 2005. "Educational policies and poverty reduction in Cote d'Ivoire," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 231-247, March.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5124 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gaundry, Marc J. I. & Dagenais, Marcel G., 1979. "The dogit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 105-111, June.
    23. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2002. "Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-39, February.
    24. Handler, A. & Issel, M. & Turnock, B., 2001. "A conceptual framework to measure performance of the public health system," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 91(8), pages 1235-1239.
    25. Alberto Martini & Ugo Trivellato, 1997. "The Role of Survey Data in Microsimulation Models for Social Policy Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 11(1), pages 83-112, April.
    26. Callan, Tim & Sutherland, Holly, 1997. "The impact of comparable policies in European countries: Microsimulation approaches," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 627-633, April.
    27. Ann Harding & Richard Percival & Deborah Schofield & Agnes Walker, 2002. "The Lifetime Distributional Impact of Government Health Outlays," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(4), pages 363-379, December.
    28. Pudney, Stephen & Sutherland, Holly, 1994. "How reliable are microsimulation results? : An analysis of the role of sampling error in a U.K. tax-benefit model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 327-365, March.
    29. Francois Bourguignon & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2003. "The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15090, December.
    30. Bingley, Paul & Walker, Ian, 1997. "The Labour Supply, Unemployment and Participation of Lone Mothers in In-Work Transfer Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1375-1390, September.
    31. P Grootendorst & D Feeny & W Furlong, 1999. "Health Utilities Index Mark 3: Evidence of Construct Validity for Stroke and Arthritis in a Population Health Survey," Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series 1999-06, Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis (CHEPA), McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
    32. Amadéo Spadaro, 2005. "Micro-simulation and Normatve Policy Evaluation : an Application to some EU Tax-Benefits System," Post-Print halshs-00754060, HAL.
    33. Rubin, Donald B, 1986. "Statistical Matching Using File Concatenation with Adjusted Weights and Multiple Imputations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-94, January.
    34. Anders Klevmarken, 2022. "Statistical Inference in Micro-simulation Models: Incorporating External Information," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 15(1), pages 111-120.
    35. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
    36. John Creedy, 1999. "Modelling Indirect Taxes and Tax Reform," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1940.
    37. Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
    38. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1998_10n1_0136 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Elisa Baroni & Matteo Richiardi, 2007. "Orcutt’s Vision, 50 years on," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 65, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    40. Mark N. Harris & Alan Duncan, 2002. "Intransigencies in the Labour Supply Choice," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    41. Atkinson, A. B. & Bouguignon, F. & Chiappori, P. A., 1988. "What do we learn about tax reform from international comparisons? France and Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 343-352, March.
    42. Victora, C.G. & Habicht, J.-P. & Bryce, J., 2004. "Evidence-Based Public Health: Moving Beyond Randomized Trials," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(3), pages 400-405.
    43. N. Anders Klevmarken, 1997. "Behavioral Modeling in Micro Simulation Models. A Survey," Working Paper Series 1997:31, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    44. Rebecca Cassells & Ann Harding & Simon Kelly, 2006. "Problems and Prospects for Dynamic Microsimulation: A review and lessons for APPSIM," NATSEM Working Paper Series 63, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    45. Asghar Zaidi & Tania Burchardt, 2005. "Comparing Incomes When Needs Differ: Equivalization For The Extra Costs Of Disability In The U.K," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 89-114, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Glaubitz, Rick & Harnack-Eber, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2022. "The gender gap in lifetime earnings: The role of parenthood," Discussion Papers 2022/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Susan M. Rogers & James Rineer & Matthew D. Scruggs & William D. Wheaton & Phillip C. Cooley & Douglas J. Roberts & Diane K. Wagener, 2014. "A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 119-146.
    3. Rick Glaubitz & Astrid Harnack-Eber & Miriam Wetter, 2022. "The Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Parenthood," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2001, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Astolfi, Roberto & Lorenzoni, Luca & Oderkirk, Jillian, 2012. "Informing policy makers about future health spending: A comparative analysis of forecasting methods in OECD countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 1-10.
    5. GENEVOIS Anne-Sophie & LIEGEOIS Philippe & PI ALPERIN Maria Noel, 2019. "DyMH_LU: a simple tool for modelling and simulating the health status of the Luxembourgish elderly in the longer run," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    6. Eline M. Krijkamp & Fernando Alarid-Escudero & Eva A. Enns & Hawre J. Jalal & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Petros Pechlivanoglou, 2018. "Microsimulation Modeling for Health Decision Sciences Using R: A Tutorial," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(3), pages 400-422, April.
    7. Mohana Mondal & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups," Working Papers in Economics 21/12, University of Waikato.
    8. Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 2012-002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Laurie Brown, 2011. "Editorial - Special Issue on Health," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(3), pages 1-2.
    10. William, Jananie & Loong, Bronwyn & Hanna, Dana & Parkinson, Bonny & Loxton, Deborah, 2022. "Lifetime health costs of intimate partner violence: A prospective longitudinal cohort study with linked data for out-of-hospital and pharmaceutical costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    2. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
    3. Alan S Duncan & Mark N Harris & Anthony Harris & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2013. "The Influence of Psychological Well-being, Ill Health and Health Shocks on Single Parents' Labour Supply," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1307, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.
    4. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2014. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the United States: New Results," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(3), pages 723-838.
    6. Olivier Bargain & Kristian Orsini & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Comparing Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US: New Results," Working Papers halshs-00805736, HAL.
    7. Olivier Bargain, 2004. "On modeling household labor supply with taxation," DELTA Working Papers 2004-14, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
    8. Guyonne Kalb, 2010. "Modelling Labour Supply Responses in Australia and New Zealand," Chapters, in: Iris Claus & Norman Gemmell & Michelle Harding & David White (ed.), Tax Reform in Open Economies, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Thoresen, Thor O. & Vattø, Trine E., 2015. "Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-53.
    10. Thor O. Thoresen & Trine E. Vattø, 2013. "Validation of structural labor supply model by the elasticity of taxable income," Discussion Papers 738, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. José Labeaga & Xisco Oliver & Amedeo Spadaro, 2008. "Discrete choice models of labour supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(3), pages 247-273, September.
    12. Anna Kurowska & Michal Myck & Katharina Wrohlich, 2012. "Family and Labor Market Choices: Requirements to Guide Effective Evidence-Based Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1234, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 697-734, December.
    14. John K. Dagsvik & Zhiyang Jia & Tom Kornstad & Thor O. Thoresen, 2014. "Theoretical And Practical Arguments For Modeling Labor Supply As A Choice Among Latent Jobs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 134-151, February.
    15. Olivier Bargain & Andreas Peichl, 2016. "Own-wage labor supply elasticities: variation across time and estimation methods," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-31, December.
    16. Figari, Francesco & Paulus, Alari & Sutherland, Holly, 2014. "Microsimulation and policy analysis," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-23, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Mohana Mondal & Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Towards a dynamic spatial microsimulation model for projecting Auckland's spatial distribution of ethnic groups," Working Papers in Economics 21/12, University of Waikato.
    18. Bargain, Olivier & Orsini, Kristian & Peichl, Andreas, 2011. "Labor Supply Elasticities in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 5820, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Clauss, Markus & Schnabel, Reinhold, 2008. "Distributional and behavioural effects of the German labour market reform," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 41(4), pages 431-446.
    20. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "New Zealand Labour Supply from 1991-2001: An Analysis Based on a Discrete Choice Structural Utility Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/23, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Microsimulation methods; policy evaluation; health; public health interventions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:10/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Rawlings (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deyoruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.