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A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme

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  • van Sonsbeek, J.M.
  • Gradus, R.H.J.M.

Abstract

This paper introduces a microsimulation model that simulates the budgetary impact of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme. A dynamic population model fits the case of the disability benefits the best. As opposed to macro forecasts, a microsimulation can answer questions about the individual or meso income effects, the exact distribution of expenses among different benefits and the time path of the savings. The introduction of the proposed system change decreases the number of disability benefits by more than 25 % from 2020 onwards and reduces total costs by almost € 2 billion or 20 %. Based on the better incentive structure, participation will increase and boost GDP. Microsimulation can be used to pick the winners and losers of the new system and give the time path of the savings. It is shown that for almost all partially disabled that are working, the total discounted income after the system change is as large as or larger than before the system change, for the non-working total discounted income is lower.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 23 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 427-456

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:23:y:2006:i:3:p:427-456

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Nelissen, J. H. M., 1991. "Household and education projections by means of a microsimulation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 480-511, October.
  2. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 77-106, April.
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  6. Amedeo spadaro, 2003. "Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: an Application to some EU Tax-Benefits System," DELTA Working Papers 2003-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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  8. Ed Westerhout, 2001. "Disability Risk, Disability Benefits, and Equilibrium Unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 219-244, May.
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  11. Sutherland, Holly & Taylor, Rebecca & Gomulka, Joanna, 2002. "Combining Household Income and Expenditure Data in Policy Simulations," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 48(4), pages 517-36, December.
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  13. Soest, A.H.O. van & Woittiez, I.B. & Kapteyn, A.J., 1989. "Labour supply, income taxes and hours restrictions in the Netherlands," Discussion Paper 1989-3, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
  2. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten & Alblas, Ridwan, 2012. "Disability benefit microsimulation models in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 700-715.
  3. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2010. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 968-979, September.
  4. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  5. Pilar García-Gómez & Hans-Martin Gaudecker & Maarten Lindeboom, 2011. "Health, disability and work: patterns for the working age population," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 146-165, April.

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