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A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme

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  • van Sonsbeek, J.M.
  • Gradus, R.H.J.M.

Abstract

This paper introduces a microsimulation model that simulates the budgetary impact of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme. A dynamic population model fits the case of the disability benefits the best. As opposed to macro forecasts, a microsimulation can answer questions about the individual or meso income effects, the exact distribution of expenses among different benefits and the time path of the savings. The introduction of the proposed system change decreases the number of disability benefits by more than 25 % from 2020 onwards and reduces total costs by almost _ 2 billion or 20 %. Based on the better incentive structure, participation will increase and boost GDP. Microsimulation can be used to pick the winners and losers of the new system and give the time path of the savings. It is shown that for almost all partially disabled that are working, the total discounted income after the system change is as large as or larger than before the system change, for the non-working total discounted income is lower.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 23 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 427-456

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:23:y:2006:i:3:p:427-456

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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References

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  1. Ed Westerhout, 2001. "Disability Risk, Disability Benefits, and Equilibrium Unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 219-244, May.
  2. François Bourguignon & Amadéo Spadaro, 2005. "Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590863, HAL.
  3. Nelissen, J. H. M., 1991. "Household and education projections by means of a microsimulation model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 480-511, October.
  4. Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Disability Insurance Benefits and Labor Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(6), pages 1162-1183, December.
  5. Klevmarken, N.A., 2001. "Micro Simulation - A Tool for Economic Analysis," Papers 2001-13, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  6. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2005. "Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 73-110, March.
  7. Arie Kapteyn & Klaas de Vos, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in The Netherlands," NBER Working Papers 6135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Annemiek van Vuren & Daniel van Vuuren, 2005. "Financial incentives in disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Paper 45, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. Sutherland, H. & Taylor, R. & Gomulka, J., 2001. "Combining Household Income and Expenditure Data in Policy Simulations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0110, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Richard Blundell, 1992. "Labour supply and taxation: a survey," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 15-40, January.
  11. Arthur van Soest & Isolde Woittiez & Arie Kapteyn, 1990. "Labor Supply, Income Taxes, and Hours Restrictions in the Netherlands," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(3), pages 517-558.
  12. Kapteyn, Arie & de Vos, Klaas, 1998. "Social Security and Labor-Force Participation in the Netherlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 164-67, May.
  13. Cathal O'Donoghue, 2001. "Dynamic Microsimulation: A Methodological Survey," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek & j.m.van.sonsbeek@vu.nl, 2011. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures: The Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions Model," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 72-99.
  2. van Sonsbeek, Jan-Maarten, 2010. "Micro simulations on the effects of ageing-related policy measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 968-979, September.
  3. Pilar García-Gómez & Hans-Martin Gaudecker & Maarten Lindeboom, 2011. "Health, disability and work: patterns for the working age population," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 146-165, April.
  4. Zucchelli, E & Jones, A.M & Rice, N, 2010. "The evaluation of health policies through microsimulation methods," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 10/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

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