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Hidden unemployment in disability insurance in the Netherlands; an empirical analysis based on employer data

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Author Info
Pierre Koning
Daniël van Vuuren ()

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Abstract

In this paper, we construct and estimate a (semi-) structural model, so as to uncover the fraction of hidden unemployment in the Disability Insurance (DI) enrolment rate. For this purpose, we use longitudinal administrative data of Dutch employers for 1994-2003. We find the (average) fraction of hidden unemployment in DI enrolment to amount to about 11%. This corresponds to 2.6% of the ‘true’ unemployment insurance (UI) enrolment rate of employers. Over the years, we observe a strong decrease in this fraction, from 5.4% in 1995, to 0.7% in 2003. In addition, our estimates suggest that most of correlation that is observed between the UI and DI enrolment rates can be explained by substitution effects, and not by ‘true’ correlation between the schemes that is exogenous to the firm. In the model, the fraction of hidden unemployment in the DI scheme is (over-)identified from various restrictions imposed by the data. First, identification follows from exclusion restrictions obtained from the coefficient estimates of variables that are assumed to influence the UI enrolment rate only. For this purpose, we use information on the wage distribution of workers employed at the firms in our sample, and sectoral growth rates. Second, identification of substitution effects follows from the observed correlation between both enrolment rates.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Papers with number 69.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:69

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Related research
Keywords: Firm behaviour; social security; disability; employment determination;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2003. "A maximum likelihood estimator based on first differences for a panel data Tobit model with individual specific effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 165-172, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Honore, Bo E, 1992. "Trimmed LAD and Least Squares Estimation of Truncated and Censored Regression Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 533-65, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Annemiek van VUren & Daniël van Vuuren, 2005. "Financial incentives in disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Papers 45, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002. "Labor supply effects of social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Arjan Heyma, 2004. "A structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 739-759. [Downloadable!]
  6. Riphahn, Regina T, 1997. "Disability Retirement and Unemployment--Substitute Pathways for Labour Force Exit? An Empirical Test for the Case of Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 551-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pierre Koning & Daniël van Vuuren, 2006. "Disability insurance and unemployment insurance as substitute pathways," CPB Discussion Papers 70, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  8. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise In The Disability Rolls And The Decline In Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 157-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pierre Koning, 2004. "Estimating the impact of experience rating on the inflow into disability insurance in the Netherlands," CPB Discussion Papers 37, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Zabel, Jeffrey E., 1992. "Estimating fixed and random effects models with selectivity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 269-272, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Pierre Koning & Daniël van Vuuren, 2006. "Disability insurance and unemployment insurance as substitute pathways," CPB Discussion Papers 70, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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