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Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling for Tax Policy Analysis in Australia: Experience and Prospects

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  • John Creedy

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)

  • Guyonne Kalb

    ()
    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper describes microsimulation modelling in non-technical terms and explains what can be achieved with microsimulation modelling in general, and the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS) in particular. The focus is on behavioural microsimulation modelling, which takes individuals’ labour supply responses into account when analysing tax and transfer reforms. Microsimulation models are built to replicate closely the considerable degree of heterogeneity observed in the population. Several examples of recent uses of MITTS are given and briefly described. Given the relatively recent development of behavioural microsimulation models, there are several opportunities for further extensions. For example, it would be valuable to allow for the demand side of labour, indicating whether new labour force participants are likely to find work or to allow for life-cycle dynamics, which are important to deal with population-ageing issues and female labour force participation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2005n02.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2005n02

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References

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  1. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Policy Reforms in Behavioural Tax Microsimulation Modelling," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n32, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  2. Blundell, Richard & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1987. "Unemployment and Female Labour Supply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 44-64, Supplemen.
  3. Hansen, G.D. & Imrohoroglu, A., 1990. "The Role Of Unemployment Insurance In An Economy With Liquidity Constraints And Moral Hazard," Papers 21, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  4. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2001. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  5. V. Joseph Hotz, 2003. "The Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Chapters, in: Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, pages 141-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella & Hsein Kew, 2002. "Estimation of Wage Equations in Australia: Allowing for Censored Observations of Labour Supply," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n26, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  7. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2001. "The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS)," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  8. Atkinson, M E & Creedy, John & Knox, D M, 1996. "Alternative Retirement Income Strategies: A Cohort Analysis of Lifetime Redistribution," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(217), pages 97-106, June.
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  14. Richard Blundell & Alan Duncan & Julian McCrae & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The labour market impact of the working families’ tax credit," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 75-103, March.
  15. Denise J. Doiron, 2004. "Welfare Reform and the Labour Supply of Lone Parents in Australia: A Natural Experiment Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 157-176, 06.
  16. Creedy, John & van de Ven, Justin, 2001. "Decomposing Redistributive Effects of Taxes and Transfers in Australia: Annual and Lifetime Measures," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 185-98, June.
  17. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Discrete Hours Labour Supply Modelling: Specification, Estimation and Simulation," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n21, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  18. Ebert, Udo, 1997. "Social Welfare When Needs Differ: An Axiomatic Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(254), pages 233-44, May.
  19. Cameron, Lisa & Creedy, John, 1995. "Indirect Tax Exemptions and the Distribution of Lifetime Income: A Simulation Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 77-87, March.
  20. Duncan, Alan & Harris, Mark N, 2002. "Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 264-76, September.
  21. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2004. "Accounting for Population Ageing in Tax Microsimulation Modelling by Survey Reweighting," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n26, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  22. Apps,Patricia Savage,Elizabeth, 1987. "Labour supply,Welfare rankings and the measurement of inequality," Discussion Paper Serie A 152, University of Bonn, Germany.
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  24. Guyonne Kalb, 2002. "Estimation of Labour Supply Models for Four Separate Groups in the Australian Population," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2002n24, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  25. Klevmarken, N. A., 1997. "Modelling Behavioural Response in EUROMOD," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9720, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  26. John Creedy & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "The Role of the Unit of Analysis in Tax Policy Reform Evaluations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n28, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  27. Creedy, J. & Van de Ven, J., 1998. "The Redistributive Effect of Selected Australian Taxes and Transfers on Annual and Lifetime Inequality," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 658, The University of Melbourne.
  28. Duncan, Alan & Giles, Christopher, 1996. "Labour Supply Incentives and Recent Family Credit Reforms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 142-55, January.
  29. Cathal O'Donoghue, 2001. "Dynamic Microsimulation: A Methodological Survey," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 4(2), December.
  30. Sefton, J. A., 2000. "A solution method for consumption decisions in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1097-1119, June.
  31. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Income Distribution in Discrete Hours Behavioural Microsimulation Models: An Illustration of the Labour Supply and Distributional Effects of Social Transfers," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n23, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  32. Robert A. Moffitt, 2003. "Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moff03-1.
  33. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Lewbel, Arthur, 1996. "Tax Reform and Welfare Measurement: Do We Need Demand System Estimation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(438), pages 1227-41, September.
  34. Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August.
  35. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2003. "Flattening the Effective Marginal Tax Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 156-172.
  36. Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew & Rosanna Scutella, 2003. "Effects of the Australian New Tax System on Government Expenditure With and Without Behavioural Changes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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Cited by:
  1. Breunig, Robert & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Gong, Xiaodong, 2005. "Improving the Modeling of Couples' Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 1773, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. van Sonsbeek, J.M. & Gradus, R.H.J.M., 2006. "A microsimulation analysis of the 2006 regime change in the Dutch disability scheme," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-456, May.
  3. Christian Dreger & Manuel Art�s & Rosina Moreno & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suri�ach, 2007. "Study on the feasibility of a tool to measure the macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," European Economy - Economic Papers 272, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Alan S Duncan & Mark N Harris & Anthony Harris & Eugenio Zucchelli, 2013. "The Influence of Psychological Well-being, Ill Health and Health Shocks on Single Parents' Labour Supply," Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Working Paper series WP1307, Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School.

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