Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector
AbstractRecently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data and using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University in its series CAFO Working Papers with number 2009:5.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 07 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, SE 351 95 Växjö, Sweden
Phone: +46 470 70 87 64
Web page: http://lnu.se/research-groups/cafo?l=en
More information through EDIRC
Low fertility trap; Social norms relative income; Economic growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2009-03-07 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-SOC-2009-03-07 (Social Norms & Social Capital)
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