Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector
AbstractRecently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data and using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University in its series CAFO Working Papers with number 2009:5.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 07 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, SE 351 95 Växjö, Sweden
Phone: +46 470 70 87 64
Web page: http://lnu.se/research-groups/cafo?l=en
More information through EDIRC
Low fertility trap; Social norms relative income; Economic growth;
Other versions of this item:
- Zamac, Jovan & Hallberg, Daniel & Lindh, Thomas, 2008. "Low fertility and long run growth in an economy with a large public sector," Arbetsrapport 2008:11, Institute for Futures Studies.
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-FDG-2009-03-07 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-SOC-2009-03-07 (Social Norms & Social Capital)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
- Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004.
"Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050,"
2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
- Klevmarken, N.A., 1998.
"Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporationg External Information,"
1998:20, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Anders Klevmarken, N., 2002. "Statistical inference in micro-simulation models: incorporating external information," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 255-265.
- Klevmarken, N. Anders, 1998. "Statistical Inference in Micro Simulation Models: Incorporating external information," Working Paper Series 1998:20, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- James Feyrer & Bruce Sacerdote & Ariel Dora Stern, 2008.
"Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility within Developed Nations,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 3-22, Summer.
- Bruce Sacerdote & James Feyrer, 2008. "Will the Stork Return to Europe and Japan? Understanding Fertility Within Developed Nations," NBER Working Papers 14114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klevmarken, Anders, 1982. "Household Market and Nonmarket Activities (HUS) – A Pilot Study," Working Paper Series 77, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, .
"Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M & Tamura, Robert, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S12-37, October.
- Davies, James B., 2004. "Microsimulation, CGE and Macro Modelling for Transition and Developing Economies," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Roberto Leombruni & Matteo Richiardi & Nicole J. Saam & Michele Sonnessa, 2005.
"A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation,"
LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series
47, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
- Matteo Richiardi & Roberto Leombruni & Nicole J. Saam & Michele Sonnessa, 2006. "A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(1), pages 15.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991.
"Generational accounting: a new approach for understanding the effects of fiscal policy on saving,"
9107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
- Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Kent Smetters, and Jan Walliser, 2001. "The Coming Generational Storm," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 276, Society for Computational Economics.
- Siv Gustafsson, 2001. "Optimal age at motherhood. Theoretical and empirical considerations on postponement of maternity in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 225-247.
- Francesco Billari & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Thomas Fent & Alexia Prskawetz, 2007. "The "Wedding-Ring"," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(3), pages 59-82, August.
- Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
- Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010.
"Family Policies in the Context of Low Fertility and Social Structure,"
1102, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
- Thomas Fent & Belinda Aparicio Diaz & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "Family policies in the context of low fertility and social structure," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(37), pages 963-998, November.
- David E. Bloom & Alfonso Sousa-Poza, 2010.
"Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe,"
PGDA Working Papers
5410, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andreas Mångs).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.