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Predicting the need for aged care services at the small area level: the CAREMOD spatial microsimulation model

Author

Listed:
  • Sharyn Lymer

    (University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia)

  • Laurie Brown

    (University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia)

  • Ann Harding

    (University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia)

  • Mandy Yap

    (University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia)

Abstract

Most industrialised societies face rapid population ageing over the next two decades, including sharp increases in the number of people aged 85 years and over. As a result, the supply of and demand for aged care services has assumed increasing policy prominence. The likely spatial distribution of the need for aged care services is critical for planners and policy makers. This article describes the development of a regional microsimulation model of the need for aged care in New South Wales, a state of Australia. It details the methods involved in reweighting the 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, a national level dataset, against the 2001 Census to produce synthetic small area estimates at the statistical local area level. Validation shows that survey variables not constrained in the weighting process can provide unreliable local estimates. A proposed solution to this problem is outlined, involving record cloning, value imputation and alignment. Indicative disability estimates arising from this process are then discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharyn Lymer & Laurie Brown & Ann Harding & Mandy Yap, 2009. "Predicting the need for aged care services at the small area level: the CAREMOD spatial microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(2), pages 27-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:27-42
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    File URL: http://ima.natsem.canberra.edu.au/IJM/V2_2/IJM_2_2_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Creedy, 2001. "Tax Modelling," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 189-202, June.
    2. Marten Lagergren, 2007. "A Simulation Model Concerning Future Needs for Long-term Care of Elderly Persons in Sweden," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care, pages 281-296, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    3. Laurie Brown & Ann Harding, 2002. "Social Modelling and Public Policy: Application of Microsimulation Modelling in Australia," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(4), pages 1-6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Philips & Graham Clarke & David Watling, 2017. "A Fine Grained Hybrid Spatial Microsimulation Technique for Generating Detailed Synthetic Individuals from Multiple Data Sources: An Application To Walking And Cycling," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 10(1), pages 167-200.
    2. repec:ijm:journl:v109:y:2017:i:1:p:167-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Itismita Mohanty & Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama & Marcia Keegan & Robert Cummins, 2013. "‘Small area estimates of Subjective Wellbeing: Spatial Microsimulation on the Australian Unity Wellbeing Index Survey’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 13/23, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    4. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.
    5. Ann Harding & Robert Tanton, 2014. "Policy and people at the small-area level: using micro-simulation to create synthetic spatial data," Chapters, in: Robert Stimson (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 25, pages 560-586, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Cathal O'Donoghue & Karyn Morrissey & John Lennon, 2014. "Spatial Microsimulation Modelling: a Review of Applications and Methodological Choices," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 26-75.
    7. Yogi Vidyattama & Riyana Miranti & Justine McNamara & Robert Tanton & Ann Harding, 2013. "The Challenges of Combining Two Databases in Small-Area Estimation: An Example Using Spatial Microsimulation of Child Poverty," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(2), pages 344-361, February.
    8. Rupendra N Shrestha & Deborah Schofield & Melanie J B Zeppel & Michelle M Cunich & Robert Tanton & Simon J Kelly & Lennert Veerman & Megan E Passey, 2018. "Care&WorkMOD: An Australian Microsimulation Model Projecting the Economic Impacts of Early Retirement in Informal Carers," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 78-99.
    9. Robert Tanton, 2018. "Spatial Microsimulation: Developments and Potential Future Directions," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 143-161.
    10. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.

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