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Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach

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  • Tianxiang Li

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Tomas Baležentis

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Lijuan Cao

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Jing Zhu

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Irena Kriščiukaitienė

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Rasa Melnikienė

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

Abstract

China has experienced an uninterrupted growth of grain output during the past decade. However, a long-term analysis indicates fluctuations in productivity and output levels, as well as dramatic shifts in grain crop mix and regional distribution. This paper, therefore, re-examines the major factors behind the dynamics in China’s grain production over the period of 1978–2013. The Index Decomposition Analysis technique, facilitated by means of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, is employed to factorize the changes in China’s grain output into four effects, i.e., yield effect, area effect, crop-mix effect and spatial distribution effect. The results show that yield effect, having been the major driver behind the growth, is experiencing a declining trend over time, with crop-mix effect gaining increasing importance. The results also indicate that changes in crop-mix caused an increase in the total grain output during 2003–2013, however this was due to abandonment of soybean farming, which is not sustainable in terms of self-sufficiency. The effect of spatial distribution has been diminishing ever since 1984. Therefore, re-allocation of areas sown is not likely to damper the sustainability of grain farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianxiang Li & Tomas Baležentis & Lijuan Cao & Jing Zhu & Irena Kriščiukaitienė & Rasa Melnikienė, 2016. "Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:1198-:d:83652
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Shulin & Su, Xiaoling & Singh, Vijay P & Ayantobo, Olusola Olaitan & Xie, Juan, 2018. "Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis of changes in agricultural water use: a case study of the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 422-430.
    2. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2018. "A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2018. "China should not massively reclaim new farmland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 12-15.
    4. Xiaobin Jin & Xiaomin Xiang & Xu Guan & Xiaowei Wu & Qing Bai & Yinkang Zhou, 2017. "Assessing the relationship between the spatial distribution of land consolidation projects and farmland resources in China, 2006–2012," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(5), pages 889-905, October.

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