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Growth and inflation: a cross-country study

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  • Brian Motley

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of inflation on real growth in a Solow growth model using data from a cross section of countries over a 30-year period. The advantage of using a theoretical model is that it reduces the risk that the results will reflect data-mining. The results suggest that the 5 percentage point reduction in inflation from the 1970s to the 1980s would increase the growth rate of real GDP per head by between 0.1 and 0.5 percentage point. This effect would be worth between 15 percent and 140 percent of one year's income. Even the lower of these projections would be larger than most estimates of the costs of bringing inflation down.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Motley, 1998. "Growth and inflation: a cross-country study," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 15-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:15-28:n:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Apergis, 2005. "Inflation Uncertainty And Growth: Evidence From Panel Data," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 186-197, June.
    2. George Bitros & Epaminondas Panas, 2006. "The inflation-productivity trade-off revisited," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 51-65, August.
    3. Bitros, G.C. & Panas, E.J., 1999. "Another Look at the Inflation-Productivity Trade-Off," Athens University of Economics and Business 114, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies.
    4. Jaganath Behera & Alok Kumar Mishra, 2017. "The Recent Inflation Crisis and Long-run Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Survey of Threshold Level of Inflation," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 105-132, June.
    5. Arif Khan & Gul Zeb Chaudhary, 2020. "Determinants Of Inflation In Case Of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 151-161, December.
    6. Takahiro SATO, 2017. "India in the World Economy: Inferences from Empirics of Economic Growth," ESRI Discussion paper series 338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    8. Shu‐Hua Chen, 2018. "The Credit‐Channel Transmission Mechanism And The Nonlinear Growth And Welfare Effects Of Inflation And Taxes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 724-744, April.
    9. Shu-Hua Chen, 2015. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions-Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 89-111, March.
    10. Hayat, Zafar & Balli, Faruk & Rehman, Muhammad, 2018. "Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1103.
    11. Franz R. Hahn & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Zur Fundierung des Designs des Europäischen Zentralbanksystems," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 72(1), pages 49-60, January.
    12. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers 0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    13. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Growth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?," Vienna Economics Papers vie0411, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.

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