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Does Inflation Matter for Growth?

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Author Info
Gylfason, Thorvaldur
Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor

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Abstract

Some channels through which increased inflation tends to reduce economic growth, and vice versa, are studied within a simple model incorporating money into an optimal growth framework with constant returns to capital. The model includes the potential impact of inflation on: (a) saving through real interest rates (or uncertainty); (b) the income velocity of money; (c) the government budget deficit through the inflation tax and tax erosion; and (d) efficiency in production through the wedge between the returns to real and financial capital. The effect of inflation on growth is estimated using the random-effects panel model applied to two sets of unbalanced panel data side-by-side, from the Penn World Tables and from the World Bank, covering 170 countries from 1960 to 1993. The cross-country links between inflation and growth are economically and statistically significant and robust.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1503.

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Date of creation: Dec 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1503

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth Inflation

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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  1. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "Output Changes and Inflationary Bias in Transition," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp167, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Nature, Power, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Resources, Agriculture, and Economic Growth in Economies in Transition," Development and Comp Systems 0012006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Zoega, Gylfi, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: The Role of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrea Vaona & Stefano Schiavo, 2006. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Evidence on the Long-Run Effects of Inflation on Growth," Kiel Working Papers 1286, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Management, Finance, and Growth," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 71-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alina Carare & Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Shu-Hua Chen & Jang-Ting Guo, 2008. "On the growth and velocity effects of money," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(13), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  10. Carlos Fernández, 1999. "Inflation and Welfare: An Application to Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(107), pages 519-544. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter Funk & Bettina Kromen, 2006. "Short-term price rigidity in an endogenous growth model: Non-Superneutrality and a non-vertical long-term Phillips-curve," Working Paper Series in Economics 29, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael D. Bordo & Peter L. Rousseau, 2006. "Legal-Political Factors and the Historical Evolution of the Finance-Growth Link," Working Papers 107, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris, 2004. "Inflation, Financial Development and Growth in Transition Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marco Lossani & Piergiovanna Natale & Patrizio Tirelli, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Imperfectly Credible Targets: Should We Appoint Expenditure-Conservative Central Bankers?," Working Papers 06, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 1997. [Downloadable!]
  15. M. Lossani & P. Natale, & P. Tirelli, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Imperfectly Credible Inflation Targets: Should We Appoint Expenditure-Conservative Central Bankers?," Working Papers 9707, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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