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Inflation, Growth and External Debt: A View of the Landscape

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  • Gylfason, Thorvaldur

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the relationship between inflation, economic growth and external debt, and discusses various channels through which (a) increased inflation tends to reduce growth and raise foreign indebtedness over time and (b) declining growth tends to amplify both inflation and debt. Based on a simple model of the simultaneous determination of inflation and growth, a non-parametric statistical comparison of the growth record and external indebtedness of high- and low-inflation economies reveals significantly slower growth and greater debts in the high-inflation economies since 1973. The observed growth differential indicates that the real costs of inflation over time may be high for individual countries as well as for the world economy as a whole.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 375.

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Date of creation: Feb 1990
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:375

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Keywords: Economic Growth; External Debt; Inflation; Non-Parametric Tests;

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Cited by:
  1. Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2010. "Développement Financier, Qualité Institutionnelle Et Croissance : Un Modèle Simple Avec Effets De Seuil," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 32, pages 31-58.
  2. Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Further theoretical and empirical evidence on money to growth relation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(21), pages 1-7.
  3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:21:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 1998. "Output gains from economic stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 81-96, June.
  6. Ahortor, Christian R.K. & Adenutsi, Deodat E., 2009. "Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries," MPRA Paper 29353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  7. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold effects in monetary and fiscal policies in a growth model: Assessing the importance of the financial system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 304-319, June.
  8. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 1996. "Does Inflation Matter for Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Villieu, P. & Minea, Alexandru, 2007. "Long-Run Monetary and Fiscal Policy Trade-Off in an Endogenous Growth Model with Transaction Costs," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 23, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  10. Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2010. "Financial development, institutional quality and maximizing-growth trade-off in government finance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 324-335, January.
  11. John F. Helliwell, 1992. "International Growth Linkages: Evidence from Asia and the OECD," NBER Working Papers 4245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.

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