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Développement Financier, Qualité Institutionnelle Et Croissance : Un Modèle Simple Avec Effets De Seuil

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  • Alexandru MINEA

    () (CERDI, Université d’Auvergne)

  • Patrick VILLIEU

    () (LEO, Université d’Orléans)

Abstract

Dans les analyses empiriques, la « qualité institutionnelle » semble être une variable déterminante pour établir le sens de la relation entre finance et croissance. Ainsi, Demetriades et Law (2004) montrent que le développement financier exerce un effet favorable sur la croissance lorsque les institutions sont saines, alors que cette corrélation disparaît si les institutions sont altérées. Dans cet article, nous tentons de reproduire ce fait saillant dans un modèle de croissance endogène. Dans notre modèle, lorsque la qualité institutionnelle dépasse un certain seuil, la relation entre finance et croissance est positive, alors qu’en deçà du seuil, elle devient négative. Ce résultat s’explique de la manière suivante : le développement financier abaisse les coûts de transaction sur l’investissement privé, mais réduit également les recettes de seigneuriage utilisables pour les investissements publics. Par conséquent, il est favorable à la croissance seulement si d’autres recettes publiques peuvent être utilisées pour financer les investissements publics, donc si la qualité institutionnelle est suffisante pour permettre de collecter des impôts autrement que par taxe inflationniste. Au contraire, si la qualité institutionnelle est trop faible, la perte de recettes de seigneuriage ne peut être compensée par la collecte de nouveaux impôts, et les infrastructures nécessaires au développement ne peuvent être programmées. Abstract - Empirical studies outline the importance of the “institutional quality” in the relation between finance and growth. Demetriades and Law (2004) show that financial development has a positive effect on economic growth when institutions are “sound”, while this correlation disappears if institutions are “poor”. The goal of this paper is to reproduce this result in an endogenous growth model. In our setup, when institutional quality exceeds a certain threshold, the relation between finance and growth is positive, while negative below. This result may be explained by the fact that financial development weakens transaction costs on private investment, but also reduces seigniorage resources for public investment. Consequently, financial develop-ment is growth-enhancing if other resources may be used to finance public investment, namely if the institutional quality is sufficient to allow for collecting public resources other than inflation tax. Conversely, in case of poor institutional quality, the loss of seigniorage revenues cannot be compensated by collecting new taxes, and development-enhancing infrastructures cannot be carried out.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var in its journal Region et Developpement.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 31-58

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Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:32:y:2010:p:31-58

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Keywords: CROISSANCE ENDOGÈNE; EFFETS DE SEUIL; POLITIQUE MONÉTAIRE; DÉVELOPPEMENT FINANCIER; POLITIQUE FISCALE; INSTITUTIONS;

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References

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