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Développement financier, qualité institutionnelle et croissance : un modèle simple avec effet de seuil

Author

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  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Patrick Villieu

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Dans les analyses empiriques, la " qualité institutionnelle " semble être une variable déterminante pour établir le sens de la relation entre finance et croissance. Ainsi, Demetriades & Law (2004) montrent que le développement financier exerce un effet favorable sur la croissance lorsque les institutions sont saines, alors que cette corrélation disparaît si les institutions sont altérées. Dans cet article, nous tentons de reproduire ce fait saillant dans un modèle de croissance endogène. Dans notre modèle, lorsque la qualité institutionnelle dépasse un certain seuil, la relation entre finance et croissance est positive, alors qu'en deçà du seuil, elle devient négative. Ce résultat s'explique de la manière suivante : le développement financier abaisse les coûts de transaction sur l'investissement privé, mais réduit également les recettes de seigneuriage utilisables pour les investissements publics. Par conséquent, il est favorable à la croissance seulement si d'autres recettes publiques peuvent être utilisées pour financer les investissements publics, donc si la qualité institutionnelle est suffisante pour permettre de collecter des impôts autrement que par taxe inflationniste. Au contraire, si la qualité institutionnelle est trop faible, la perte de recettes de seigneuriage ne peut être compensée par la collecte de nouveaux impôts, et les infrastructures nécessaires au développement ne peuvent être programmées.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2010. "Développement financier, qualité institutionnelle et croissance : un modèle simple avec effet de seuil," Post-Print halshs-00587083, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00587083
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    2. Magloire LANHA, 2022. "Les institutions influencent-elles la relation," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 5-22.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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