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Inflation-Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

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  • Ardeshir Sepehri
  • Saeed Moshiri

Abstract

There is growing evidence from multi-country studies indicating that there is a turning point in the relationship between inflation and economic growth beyond which the detrimental effects of high inflation offset the stimulating effects of mild inflation on growth. However, it is not clear whether it is appropriate to assume an identical turning point in the inflation and growth relation across countries at various stages of development. Using a non-linear specification and the data from four groups of countries at various stages of development, this paper examines the possibility for a family rather than a single inverted U relation across countries at various stages of development. The estimated turning points are found to vary widely from as high as 15% per year for the lower-middle-income countries to 11% for the low-income countries, and 5% for the upper-middle-income countries. No statistically detectable, long-run relationship between inflation and growth is evident for the OECD countries. The results indicate the potential bias in the estimation of inflation-growth nexus that may result from combining various countries at different levels of development. The existence of such a degree of heterogeneity across countries at various stages of development also suggests the inappropriateness of setting a single, uniform numerical policy target applicable to all (developing) countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 191-207

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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:191-207

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation; growth; non-linearity; developed and developing countries;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. John Serieux, 2007. "Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing," Conference Paper 1, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  2. Qaiser Munir & Kasim Mansur, 2009. "Non-Linearity between Inflation Rate and GDP Growth in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1555-1569.
  3. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  4. Schiffbauer, Marc, 2006. "Theoretical and methodological study on the role of public policies in fostering innovation and growth," Papers DYNREG04, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Polterovich, Victor, 2006. "Снижение Инфляции Не Должно Быть Главной Целью Экономической Политики Правительства России
    [Decreasing Inflation Shou
    ," MPRA Paper 22064, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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