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The inflation-productivity trade-off revisited

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Author Info
George C. Bitros (Athens University of Economics & Business)
Epameinondas E. Panas (Athens University of Economics & Business)

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Abstract

Our aim in this paper is threefold. First, to test the robustness of the relation between total factor productivity growth and inflation to the specification of the estimating model; second, to test the stability of their relationship in the short run and in the long run, and third, to investigate the direction of causality between these two variables. To accomplish the first objective, we esti-mate a generalized Box-Box cost function using data from the two-digit Standard Industrial Clas- sification of manufacturing industries in Greece during the period 1964- 1980. The results show that: a) the acceleration of inflation from 1964- 1972 to 1973-1980 reduced total factor productiv-ity growth in a way that was both statistically significant and sizeable, and b) even when the ef-fect of inflation is separated from the effects of technical change and economies of scale, the choice of functional form is most crucial. With respect to the second objective, somewhat to our surprise, we find that the inflation-productivity trade-off prevails even in the long run. And, fi-nally, regarding the third objective, it emerges that in the great majority of two-digit manufactur-ing industries the causality runs from inflation to productivity. On these grounds we conclude that for a precise estimation of the relationship under consideration it is imperative to sort out the three effects involved, do so by adopting the most general flexible functional form for the cost function, and run the appropriate stability and causality tests.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0512012.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 16 Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0512012

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: inflation productivity scale economies technical change generalized Box-Cox cost function stability causality

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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