The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences Based on Time Series Data from Pakistan
AbstractThis study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy and its impact on macroeconomic activities in Pakistan during the period 1972–2008. It examines the role of fiscal policy under democratic and military regimes. Recognising the shortcomings of traditional procedures, this study adopts modern econometric techniques to identify the effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic activities. The sensitivity analysis procedure has been carried out to select the robust variables, which are not sensitive to different econometric techniques. Dynamic simulations have also been performed to observe the reaction of unexpected structural and policy shocks. Using Auto Regressive Distribute Lag (ARDL) model, we find that the overall fiscal deficit exerts a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. Hence, this study concludes that expansionary fiscal contraction occurs in Pakistan. In order to estimate short-run dynamics, we use the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). In the short run, the overall fiscal deficit has a significant impact on economic growth. The study recommends that the budget deficit should be in the narrow band of 3 to 4 percent of GDP. Beyond this limit, the unsustainable budget deficit could have undesirable macroeconomic costs and the government’s macroeconomic objectives such as low inflation and high economic growth might be in jeopardy. The government should also curtail non-productive expenditures. Particular attention should be given to the Public Sector Development Plan (PSDP), as it is the complementary of private investment and has a long-term impact on macroeconomic activities.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.
Volume (Year): 49 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Fiscal Policy; Economic Growth; ARDL;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992.
"The Power of Cointegration Tests,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
- Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vito Tanzi & Howell H. Zee, 1997.
"Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 179-209, June.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1993.
"The role of macroeconomic factors in growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
- Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I Just Ran Four Million Regressions,"
NBER Working Papers
6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gale, William G. & Orszag, Peter R., 2003. "Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 56(3), pages 463-85, September.
- Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 713-713, June.
- Iris Claus & Aaron Gill & Boram Lee & Nathan McLellan, 2006. "An empirical investigation of fiscal policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/08, New Zealand Treasury.
- Muthi Samudram & Mahendhiran Nair & Santha Vaithilingam, 2009. "Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 697-712, June.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Roberto Perotti, 2004.
"Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries,"
276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2008. "Effect of Government Spending and Macro-Economic Uncertainty on Private Investment in Services Sector: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 11673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, 09.
- Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1993. "Fiscal Deficits and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 211-37, July.
- Ghulam Rasool Madni, 2013. "Instrumental Effects of Fiscal Policy for Pakistan Economy," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 16(50), pages 27-50, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.