Long-run trends in labor supply
AbstractThe recent "benign" combination of strong output growth and low inflation has led to speculation that the potential growth rate of real GDP has increased. This paper examines trends in labor supply to see whether this source of GDP growth might have accelerated. Discussions of labor supply often focus on labor force participation. But other considerations--such as the length of the workweek, the amount of time spent away from work and the demographic structure of the population--also have been important in causing trend shifts in labor supply. My analysis suggests that no significant increase in the growth rate of any of these dimensions of labor supply is likely in the near future. So if potential GDP is to accelerate, this must come from faster productivity growth.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.
Volume (Year): (1997)
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- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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