The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation
AbstractPurpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Sri Lanka, in order to examine the validity of the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts unit roots and cointegration, error-correction modelling, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse responses analysis to examine the causal relationship between six macroeconomic variables. Findings – The results indicate that there are both short and long-run causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables. These findings refute the validity of the semi-strong version of the efficient market hypothesis for the Sri Lankan share market and have implications for investors, both domestic and international. Originality/value – The paper addresses several methodological weaknesses in relation to unit root and cointegration tests which previous studies in the area of the paper have overlooked. Further, it uses more variables than those used in a previous study using Sri Lankan data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.emeraldinsight.com
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Araújo, Eurilton, 2009.
"Macroeconomic shocks and the co-movement of stock returns in Latin America,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 331-344, December.
- Araújo, Eurilton, 2008. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Co-movement of Stock Returns in Latin America," Insper Working Papers wpe_113, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Park, Kwangwoo & Ratti, Ronald A, 2000. "Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 59-77, May.
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Cumhur Erdem & Cem Kaan Arslan & Meziyet Sema Erdem, 2005. "Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 987-994.
- Kanokwan Chancharoenchai & Sel Diboog�Lu & Ike Mathur, 2005. "Stock Returns and the Macroeconomic Environment Prior to the Asian Crisis in Selected Southeast Asian Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 38-56, August.
- Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-45, April.
- Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
- Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1997. "Common Stochastic Trends and Convergence of European Union Stock Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(1), pages 44-57, January.
- Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
- Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2009. "Changes in the international comovement of stock returns and asymmetric macroeconomic shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-305, April.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Khaled, Mohammed & Keef, Stephen, 2011. "On the dynamics of international stock market efficiency," Working Paper Series 1991, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.