Real Activity, Inflation, Stock Returns, and Monetary Policy
AbstractWe find that contractionary monetary policy shocks generate statistically significant movements in inflation and expected real stock returns, and that these movements go in opposite directions. Since positive shocks to output precipitate monetary tightening, we argue that the countercyclical monetary policy process is important in explaining the negative correlation between inflation and stock returns. Examining the 1979-82 period, we find that monetary policy tightens significantly in response to positive shocks to inflation, and that the impact of monetary policy shocks on stock returns is negative and volatile. Therefore, we see evidence that an "anticipated policy" hypothesis is at work. Copyright 2000 by MIT Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Eastern Finance Association in its journal The Financial Review.
Volume (Year): 35 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Mohamed Arouri & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja & FrédéricTeulon, 2014. "Stock returns and Inflation in Pakistan," Working Papers 2014-108, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Ewing, Bradley T., 2003. "The response of the default risk premium to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 261-272.
- Bradley Ewing & Phanindra Wunnava, 2002. "Union-Nonunion Wage Differentials and Macroeconomic Activity," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0231, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012.
"Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR evidence,"
Working Paper Series
433, African Development Bank.
- Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou & Nombulelo Gumata, 2012. "Working Paper 157 - How are the US Financial Shocks Transmitted into South Africa? Structural VAR Evidence," Working Paper Series 410, African Development Bank.
- Ewing, Bradley T., 2001. "Cross-Effects of Fundamental State Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 633-645, October.
- Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2005. "The response of real estate investment trust returns to macroeconomic shocks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 293-300, March.
- Bharat Kolluri & Mahmoud Wahab, 2008. "Stock returns and expected inflation: evidence from an asymmetric test specification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 371-395, May.
- Li, Yun Daisy & Iscan, Talan B. & Xu, Kuan, 2010.
"The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 876-896, September.
- Yun Daisy Li & Talan B. Iscan & Kuan Xu, 2007. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Stock Prices: Evidence from Canada and the United States," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive stock_money19.pdf, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2013. "Monetary policy and stock market dynamics across monetary regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-406.
- Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
- Mansor H. Ibrahim and Wan Sulaiman Wan Yusoff, 2001. "Macroeconomic Variables, Exchange Rate And Stock Price: A Malaysian Perspective," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 9(2), pages 141-164, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.