Macroeconomic Shocks and the Co-movement of Stock Returns in Latin America
AbstractThis paper studies the economic sources underlying the co-movement of real stock returns in Latin America. Following the literature on structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs), I use long-run restrictions to identify three structural shocks: demand, supply, and portfolio shocks. For some countries, portfolio shocks are important factors behind real stock returns. Furthermore, these shocks seem to be important in explaining cross-country co-movement patterns. However, these findings are not statistically strong due to the degree of uncertainty about the estimates of the importance of each structural shock and the cross-correlation coefficients. Therefore, macroeconomic shocks (supply and demand) cannot be neglected in accounting for the dynamics of real stock returns.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa in its series Insper Working Papers with number wpe_113.
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Araújo, Eurilton, 2009. "Macroeconomic shocks and the co-movement of stock returns in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 331-344, December.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
- Campbell, John, 1991.
"A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns,"
3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Inflation and rates of return on stocks: evidence from high inflation countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 75-96, March.
- Liam Gallagher, 1999. "A multi-country analysis of the temporary and permanent components of stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 129-142.
- Li Yang & Francis Tapon & Yiguo Sun, 2006. "International correlations across stock markets and industries: trends and patterns 1988-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1171-1183.
- Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2006. "US share prices and real supply and demand shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 149-167, February.
- Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
- Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicolo, 1997.
"Stock returns, term structure, inflation and real activity: An international perspective,"
Economics Working Papers
203, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Canova, Fabio & Nicol , Gianni De, 2000. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, And Real Activity: An International Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 343-372, September.
- Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 1997. "Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation and Real Activity: An International Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 1614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rapach, David E., 2001. "Macro shocks and real stock prices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 5-26.
- Hess, Patrick J & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1999. "Stock Returns and Inflation with Supply and Demand Disturbances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1203-18.
- Jose Pagan & Gokce Soydemir, 2000. "On the linkages between equity markets in Latin America," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 207-210.
- Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
- Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.
- Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
- Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 717-732, October.
- Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Naercio Menezes).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.