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A time-dependent stated preference approach to measuring vehicle type preferences and market elasticity of conventional and green vehicles

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  • Cirillo, Cinzia
  • Liu, Yan
  • Maness, Michael

Abstract

The diversity of new vehicle technology and fuel markets, the governments’ sustainable call to reduce energy consumption and air pollution lead to a change in the personal vehicle market. Considering the impact of these factors, a stated preference survey approach is adopted to analyze household future preferences for gasoline, hybrid electric, and battery electric vehicles in a dynamic marketplace. The stated choice experiment places respondents in a nine-year hypothetical time window with dynamically changing attributes including vehicle purchasing price, fuel economy, recharging range, and fuel price. A web-based survey was performed during 2014 in the state of Maryland. The collected data include household social-demographics, primary vehicle characteristics, and vehicle purchasing preferences of 456 respondents during the year of 2014–2022. Mixed Multinomial logit (MMNL) models are employed to predict vehicle preferences based on households’ socio-demographics and vehicle characteristics. The estimation results show that young people are more likely to buy vehicles with new technology, especially battery electric vehicles (BEV). Women with a high education level (bachelor degree or higher) prefer to choose hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) while men with a high education level are more likely to buy BEV. The estimated vehicle market elasticities with respect to vehicle price are from −1.1 to −1.8 for HEV and BEV, higher than those for gasoline vehicles from −0.6 to −1.0. The vehicle market cross-elasticities estimated by MMNL models range from 0.2 to 0.6. In addition, willingness to pay (WTP) of vehicle characteristics estimated by MMNL models provide a good understanding of household future vehicle preferences.

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  • Cirillo, Cinzia & Liu, Yan & Maness, Michael, 2017. "A time-dependent stated preference approach to measuring vehicle type preferences and market elasticity of conventional and green vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 294-310.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:294-310
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.028
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