Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The demand for transportation fuels: Imperfect price-reversibility?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dargay, Joyce
  • Gately, Dermot
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper examines the price-reversibility of fuel demand for road transport. The analysis is based on an econometric model which utilizes price-decomposition techniques to measure separately the effects of different types of price increases and decreases. The methods proposed allow empirical testing of irreversibility and certain forms of hysteresis in demand relationships. The results lend strong support to the notion that consumers do not necessarily respond in the same fashion to rising and falling prices, nor equivalently to sudden and substantial price rises as to minor price fluctuations: demand is not necessarily reversible to price changes. This finding severely challenges the equilibrium basis of the traditional, reversible demand model. In the particular example used, the results indicate that consumers have reacted more strongly to the price rises of the seventies, than to other price rises, and that the resulting fuel reductions will not be totally reversed as prices return to lower levels. The results also show that, if irreversibilities do exist, the use of reversible, symmetric models will produce biased elasticity estimates, not only for prices, but for other variables as well. The methods used in this analysis should be applicable to more detailed analysis of travel behaviour, where asymmetry of response or persistence of effect may be relevant. The existence of price asymmetries will have important implications for fuel use in transport, as well as for traffic growth, and particularly for evaluating the impact of price-related transport policy. It will also affect the possibility of estimating price elasticities and forecasting demand on the basis of historic data.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V99-3SWT35K-6/2/22ae5594cbecadc5fc6c2076a3de6e43
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

    Volume (Year): 31 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 71-82

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:31:y:1997:i:1:p:71-82

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/548/description#description

    Order Information:
    Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
    Web: https://shop.elsevier.com/order?id=548&ref=548_01_ooc_1&version=01

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    5. Dermot Gately, 1993. "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 163-182.
    6. Gately, Dermot, 1993. "Oil demand in the US and Japan: why the demand reductions caused by the price increases of the 1970's won't be reversed by the price declines of the 1980's," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 295-320, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Olutomi I Adeyemi & Lester C. Hunt, 2006. "Modelling OECD Industrial Energy Demand: Asymmetric Price Responses and Energy – Saving Technical Change," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 115, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
    3. Ryan, David L. & Plourde, Andre, 2002. "Smaller and smaller? The price responsiveness of nontransport oil demand," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 285-317.
    4. Jin, Sang-Hyeon, 2007. "The effectiveness of energy efficiency improvement in a developing country: Rebound effect of residential electricity use in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5622-5629, November.
    5. Olutomi I Adeyemi & David C Broadstock & Mona Chitnis & Lester C Hunt & Guy Judge, 2008. "Asymmetric Price Responses and the Underlying Energy Demand Trend: Are they Substitutes or Complements? Evidence from Modelling OECD Aggregate Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 121, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    6. Dargay, Joyce M, 2001. "The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 807-821, November.
    7. Adofo, Yaw Osei & Evans, Joanne & Hunt, Lester Charles, 2013. "How sensitive to time period sampling is the asymmetric price response specification in energy demand modelling?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 90-109.
    8. Robert V. Breunig & Carol Gisz, 2009. "An Exploration of Australian Petrol Demand: Unobservable Habits, Irreversibility and Some Updated Estimates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 73-91, 03.
    9. Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2008. "Transport policy in Dutch election manifestos: Estimating the environmental impact," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 283-290, September.
    10. Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance, 2011. "Re-Identifying the Rebound – What About Asymmetry?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0276, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Gallo, Mariano, 2011. "A fuel surcharge policy for reducing road traffic greenhouse gas emissions," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 413-424, March.
    12. Huntington, Hillard G., 2011. "Backcasting U.S. oil demand over a turbulent decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5674-5680, September.
    13. Dargay, Joyce, 2007. "The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 949-960, December.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:31:y:1997:i:1:p:71-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.