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Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited

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  • Blecker, Robert A.
  • Ibarra, Carlos A.

Abstract

Previous studies have found that a tightening of the balance of payments (BP) constraint can explain the slowdown in Mexico's growth after its trade liberalization in the late 1980s. This paper develops a disaggregated model of the BP constraint with two types of exports (manufactures and primary commodities) and two types of imports (intermediate and final goods). Econometric estimates (including tests for structural breaks) show that the BP-equilibrium growth rate did not fall, but instead rose in the post-liberalization period, so this model cannot account for the country's growth slowdown. Instead, the analysis points to the need to consider the real exchange rate as well as internal obstacles and policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Blecker, Robert A. & Ibarra, Carlos A., 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: The case of Mexico revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:33-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2013.02.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    2. Carlos A. Ibarra & Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Structural change, the real exchange rate and the balance of payments in Mexico, 1960–2012," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(2), pages 507-539.
    3. Irfan Civcir & M. Emir Yücel, 2020. "Effects of Internal and External Imbalances and the Role of Relative Prices on Economic Growth: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, June.
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    5. Villani, Davide, 2021. "Revisiting the external financial dependence index in light of the rise of corporate net lending: What do we really measure?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-376.
    6. Rafael Saulo Marques Ribeiro & John S. L. McCombie & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2017. "Some unpleasant currency-devaluation arithmetic in a post Keynesian macromodel," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 145-167, April.
    7. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    8. de Souza, João Paulo A. & Gómez-Ramírez, Leopoldo, 2018. "The paradox of Mexico's export boom without growth: A demand-side explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 96-113.
    9. Blecker, Robert A. & Moreno Brid, Juan Carlos & Salat, Isabel, 2017. "Trumping the NAFTA renegotiation An alternative policy framework for Mexican-United States cooperation and economic convergence," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 42579, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Robert A. Blecker, 2015. "International Trade and Development," Working Papers 2015-07, American University, Department of Economics.
    11. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    12. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Matheus Silva Paiva & Júlio Fernando Costa Santos, 2019. "The role of intermediate inputs in a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model: the case of Mexico," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2014. "Trade, investment, and capital flows:Mexico's macroeconomic adjustment to the Great Recession," Working Paper Series Sobre México 2014002, Sobre México. Temas en economía.
    14. Andrew B. Trigg, 2020. "Thirlwall’s Law and uneven development under Global Value Chains: a multi-country input–output approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexican economy; Balance-of-payments constraint; Trade liberalization; Intermediate imports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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