IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/empiri/v44y2017i1d10.1007_s10663-015-9310-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies)

Abstract

Thirlwall’s Law is found to be the necessary but not sufficient condition for balanced long-run growth. A simple equation is considered whose empirical analysis could confirm—or reject—the validity of the Law. The analysis, conducted by means of econometric co-integration using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares method applied to data for 59 countries covering the years 1960–2012, suggests that Thirlwall’s Law may not hold for the decisive majority of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "“Thirlwall’s Law” reconsidered," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 29-57, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-015-9310-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-015-9310-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-015-9310-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10663-015-9310-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    2. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho, 2001. "The balance-of-payments constraint:from balanced trade to sustainable debt," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 381-400.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    4. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
    5. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Olivier J Blanchard, 2009. "Global Imbalances: In Midstream?," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/029, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mark Setterfield, 2012. "The Remarkable Durability of Thirlwall’s Law," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 3, pages 83-110, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2010. "Trade Elasticities: A Final Report for the European Commission," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 432, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Bernd Schnatz, 2011. "Global Imbalances And The Pretence Of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 604-615, December.
    11. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    12. Jose Antonio Alonso, 1999. "Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 245-253.
    13. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1315-1329.
    14. Leland D. Crane & Meredith A. Crowley & Saad Quayyum, 2007. "Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 31(Q IV), pages 2-17.
    15. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    17. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Olivier J Blanchard, 2009. "Global Imbalances; In Midstream?," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/29, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Spaventa, Luigi & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2010. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    20. Gustavo Britto & John S. L. McCombie, 2009. "Thirlwall's law and the long-term equilibrium growth rate: an application to Brazil," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 115-136, September.
    21. Mario Cimoli & Gabriel Porcile & Sebastián Rovira, 2010. "Structural change and the BOP-constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(2), pages 389-411, March.
    22. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    23. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    24. Kevin Nell, 2003. "A 'Generalised' Version of the Balance-of-Payments Growth Model: An application to neighbouring regions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 249-267.
    25. Juan Carlos Moreno‐Brid, 2003. "Capital Flows, Interest Payments and the Balance‐of‐Payments Constrained Growth Model: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 346-365, May.
    26. Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
    27. A. P. Thirlwall, 1991. "Professor Krugman’s 45-Degree Rule," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 23-28, September.
    28. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elias Soukiazis & Micaela Antunes & Ioannis Kostakis, 2018. "The Greek economy under the twin-deficit pressure: a demand orientated growth approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 215-236, March.
    2. Leon Podkaminer, 2018. "‘Old’ Europe’s wage dynamics and trade imbalances: Is there a link?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 395-408, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    3. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    4. Civcir, Irfan & Panshak, Yohanna & Ozdeser, Huseyin, 2021. "A multi-sectoral balance of payments constrained growth approach with intermediate imports: The case of Nigeria," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 240-250.
    5. Woocheol Lee, 2021. "Structural Change, Balance of Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 631-653, December.
    6. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.
    7. Sebastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2022. "The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 100-129, January.
    8. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    10. A.P. Thirlwall, 2018. "Una vita nell’economia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 71(283), pages 179-210.
    11. Yohanna Panshak & Irfan Civcir & Hüseyin Ozdeser, 2019. "Technology Gap and the Role of National Innovation System in a Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    12. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "A structural economic dynamics approach to balance-of-payments-constrained growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 31(5), pages 755-774, September.
    13. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Perez-Medina, 2023. "Current External Challenges to the Economic Expansion of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series inetwp201, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    14. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & José L. Oreiro & Mario W. D. Dávila, 2018. "Endogenizing Non-Price Competitiveness In A Model With Capital Accumulation And Bopc On Growth," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 83, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    15. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
    16. Gustavo Britto & João Prates Romero, 2011. "Modelos kaldorianos de crescimento e suas extensões contemporâneas," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 449, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, revised Jul 2013.
    17. Hiroshi Nishi, 2019. "Balance‐of‐payments‐constrained cyclical growth with distributive class conflicts and productivity dynamics," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 620-640, November.
    18. Gabriel Porcile & Danilo Sartorello Spinola, 2018. "Natural, Effective and BOP-Constrained Rates of Growth: Adjustment Mechanisms and Closure Equations," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 71(285), pages 139-160.
    19. Mark Setterfield & Selen Ozcelik, 2017. "Is the balance of payments constrained growth rate time-varying? Exchange rate over valuation, policy-induced recessions, deindustrialization, and long run growth," Working Papers 1726, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    20. Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A.P. Thirlwall, 2005. "Trade Liberalisation, the Balance of Payments and Growth in Latin America," Studies in Economics 0506, School of Economics, University of Kent.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thirlwall’s Law; Trade elasticities; Balanced growth; Co-integration; DOLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-015-9310-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.