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Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico

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  • Luis Miguel Galindo
  • Jaime Ros
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    Abstract

    The paper addresses Mexico's experience with inflation targeting, which became operational in the aftermath of the 1994/95 tequila crisis. Using VAR econometrics over the post-1980 time series data, we find that monetary policy of the Banco de Mexico was asymmetric with respect to exchange rate movements - tightening when exchange rates depreciated, but not loosening when exchange rates appreciated. This lent a bias in favor of an over-valued exchange rate, leading to contractionary effects on output. We propose a more 'neutral' monetary policy so that the central bank of Mexico responds symmetrically to real exchange rate movements and thereby avoids the bias toward over-valuation. This policy may continue to be implemented within the boundaries of inflation targeting wherein the central bank would promote a 'stable and competitive' real exchange rate by establishing a sliding floor to the exchange rate in order to prevent excessive appreciation, but by allowing it to float freely otherwise.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02692170701880718
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 201-214

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:22:y:2008:i:2:p:201-214

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    Related research

    Keywords: monetary policy; inflation; Mexico: central banks;

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    Cited by:
    1. Ivan Mendieta Muñoz, 2013. "El modelo de objetivos de inflación y el efecto pass-through en América Latina," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 15, pages 5-30.
    2. Blecker, Robert A. & Esquivel, Gerardo, 2010. "NAFTA, Trade, and Development," University of California at San Diego, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies qt07f5g232, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, UC San Diego.
    3. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    4. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2010. "A Concise History of Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2010-01, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    5. Robert A. Blecker & Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: the case of Mexico revisited," Working Papers 2013-02, American University, Department of Economics.
    6. Juan Antonio Montecino & Jose Antonio Cordero, 2010. "Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2010-10, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    7. Robert A. Blecker & Gerardo Esquivel, 2010. "NAFTA, Trade and Development (Robert A. Blecker and Gerardo Esquivel)," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(4), pages 17-30, December.
    8. Robert Blecker, 2007. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006," Working Papers wp157, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. James W. Bono & David H. Wolpert, 2009. "Statistical prediction of the outcome of a noncooperative game," Working Papers 2009-20, American University, Department of Economics.
    10. Ibarra, Carlos A., 2011. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 2080-2090.
    11. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Comercio, Empleo y Distribución: Efectos de la Integración Regional y Global," Working Papers 2009-21, American University, Department of Economics.
    12. James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana, 2010. "Is There a Case for Formal Inflation Targeting in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Working Papers wp218, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    13. Escobar Gamboa, Octavio Romano, 2009. "IDE entrants, exportations et productivité manufacturière : les différentes performances des régions mexicaines," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/3850 edited by Guillochon, Bernard.
    14. Carlos A. Carrasco & Jesús Ferreiro, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Economic Performance: The Case of Mexico," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 675-692, December.
    15. Frenkel, Roberto & Rapetti, Martín, 2012. "Exchange rate regimes in the major Latin American countries since the 1950s: lessons from history," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 157-188, March.

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