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External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006

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  • Robert Blecker

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of external constraints on growth and investment in the Mexican economy, and how those effects have changed since the economic liberalization of the 1980s and the formation of NAFTA in 1994. Shocks to net financial inflows, world oil prices, the U.S. growth rate, and the real value of the peso explain most of the fluctuations in Mexico’s annual growth since 1979 (with structural breaks in some of these effects due to liberalization or NAFTA). Both Hausman weak exogeneity tests and simultaneous equations estimates generally support the view that growth drives investment but not the other way around, in the short run. Inflows of foreign direct investment have positive effects on investment, but the coefficients are small and their statistical significance is marginal.

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File URL: http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP157.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst in its series Working Papers with number wp157.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp157

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Keywords: Mexican economy; external shocks; economic growth; investment function; financial inflows; real exchange rates;

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  1. Julio López Gallardo & Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Martín Puchet Anyul, 2006. "Financial Fragility And Financial Crisis In Mexico," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 365-388, 07.
  2. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
  4. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
  5. Alicia Puyana, 2006. "Mexican Oil Policy and Energy Security Within NAFTA," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 72-97, June.
  6. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  7. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332.
  8. Pennelope Pacheco-Lopez & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade liberalisation in Mexico: rhetoric and reality," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 57(229), pages 141-167.
  9. Penelope Pacheco-López, 2004. "Does The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico," Studies in Economics 0401, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. Ebrima Faal, 2005. "Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 05/93, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
  12. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  13. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  14. De Leon, Ernesto Zedillo Ponce, 1986. "Mexico's recent balance-of-payments experience and prospects for growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 963-991, August.
  15. Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
  16. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  17. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  18. Robert S. Chirinko, 1992. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Working Papers 9213, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
  19. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
  20. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico and United States Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2004-05, Banco de México.
  21. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
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Cited by:
  1. Isaac, Sánchez Juárez, 2011. "Una interpretación sobre el bajo crecimiento económico en México
    [One interpretation of the low economic growth in Mexico]
    ," MPRA Paper 38101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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