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External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006

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  • Robert Blecker

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of external constraints on growth and investment in the Mexican economy, and how those effects have changed since the economic liberalization of the 1980s and the formation of NAFTA in 1994. Shocks to net financial inflows, world oil prices, the U.S. growth rate, and the real value of the peso explain most of the fluctuations in Mexico’s annual growth since 1979 (with structural breaks in some of these effects due to liberalization or NAFTA). Both Hausman weak exogeneity tests and simultaneous equations estimates generally support the view that growth drives investment but not the other way around, in the short run. Inflows of foreign direct investment have positive effects on investment, but the coefficients are small and their statistical significance is marginal.

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File URL: http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_151-200/WP157.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst in its series Working Papers with number wp157.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:uma:periwp:wp157

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Keywords: Mexican economy; external shocks; economic growth; investment function; financial inflows; real exchange rates;

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References

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  1. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  2. Robert S. Chirinko, 1993. "Business fixed investment spending: a critical survey of modeling strategies, empirical results, and policy implications," Research Working Paper 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Ebrima Faal, 2005. "Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 05/93, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  5. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar, 2004. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico and United States Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 2004-05, Banco de México.
  6. Penelope Pacheco-López, 2004. "Does The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports, the Balance of Payments and Growth: the Case of Mexico," Studies in Economics 0401, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Alicia Puyana, 2006. "Mexican Oil Policy and Energy Security Within NAFTA," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 72-97, June.
  9. Julio López Gallardo & Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Martín Puchet Anyul, 2006. "Financial Fragility And Financial Crisis In Mexico," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 365-388, 07.
  10. Penelope Pacheco-López & A.P. Thirlwall, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation in Mexico: Rhetoric and Reality," Studies in Economics 0403, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  11. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
  13. Luis Miguel Galindo & Jaime Ros, 2008. "Alternatives to inflation targeting in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 201-214.
  14. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332.
  15. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  16. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  17. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
  18. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, 1999. "Mexico's Economic Growth and the Balance of Payments Constraint: A cointegration analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 149-159.
  19. J.-C. Moreno-Brid, 1998. "Balance-of-payments constrained economic growth: the case of Mexico," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(207), pages 413-433.
  20. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 219-294.
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Cited by:
  1. Isaac, Sánchez Juárez, 2011. "Una interpretación sobre el bajo crecimiento económico en México
    [One interpretation of the low economic growth in Mexico]
    ," MPRA Paper 38101, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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