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Balance of Payments Constrained Growth and Developing Countries: An examination of Thirlwall's hypothesis

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  • Jonathan Perraton

Abstract

Thirlwall's hypothesis of balance of payments constrained growth has been widely tested for developed countries, but much less for developing countries. Further, previous tests have used dated estimates derived using non-robust econometric techniques. After discussing the conditions under which Thirlwall's hypothesis would be valid and the econometric issues involved, this study reports error correction estimates of import and export demand functions for a large sample of developing countries. Deriving the long run income elasticities of demand from these functions, the study reports tests for different specifications of Thirlwall's hypothesis on this sample and finds some support for it.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713673169
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-22

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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:17:y:2003:i:1:p:1-22

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Cited by:
  1. Secil Pacaci Elitok & Al Campbell, 2008. "The Balance of Payments as a Constraint on Turkey’s Growth: 1960-2004," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_13, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  2. Arslan Razmi, 2009. "Exploring the Robustness of the Balance of Payments-Constrained Growth Idea in a Multiple Good Framework," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-10, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  3. Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri, 2011. "No Easy Balancing Act: Reducing the Balance of Payments Constraint; Improving Export Competitiveness and Productivity; and Absorbing Surplus Labor – The Indian Experience," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2011_12, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  4. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
  5. Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011. "Hypothèse de Thirlwall: cas des pays de la zone Franc
    [Thirlwall’s hypothesis : the case of countries of the Franc Zone]    ," MPRA Paper 29990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Raphael Rocha Gouvea & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall's law," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 33(1), pages 169-204, October.
  7. Ricardo Azevedo Araujo & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach To Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Growth," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 119, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  8. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
  9. Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe & Mañalich Gálvez, Isis & Matesanz Gómez, David, 2008. "Empirical Evidence Of The Balance Of Payments Constrained Growth In Cuba. The Effects Of Comercial Regimes Since 1960," MPRA Paper 6993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
  11. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
  12. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2012. "Balance-of-Payments Constrained Growth: the Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 41791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Robert A. Blecker, 2009. "Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?," Working Papers 2009-23, American University, Department of Economics.
  14. Matesanz Gómez, David & Fugarolas Álvarez-Ude, Guadalupe, 2006. "Exchange rate policy and trade balance. A cointegration analysis of the argentine experience since 1962," MPRA Paper 151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
  15. Robert A. Blecker & Carlos A. Ibarra, 2013. "Trade liberalization and the balance of payments constraint with intermediate imports: the case of Mexico revisited," Working Papers 2013-02, American University, Department of Economics.
  16. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
  17. Lilas Demmou, 2007. "Technical progress in North and welfare gains in South under nonhomothetic preferences," Working Papers halshs-00588310, HAL.
  18. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo, 2011. "New insights from a structural economic dynamic approach to balance of payments constrained growth," MPRA Paper 30332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Mario García Molina & Jeanne Kelly Ruíz Tavera, 2008. "Ley De Thirlwall Y Modelo De Brechas: Un Modelo Unificado," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO - ESCUELA DE ECONOMÍA 004835, UN - RCE - CID.
  20. Gouvea, Raphael Rocha & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2011. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: a panel data investigation," MPRA Paper 29816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Arslan Razmi, 2005. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Model: The Case of India," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.

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