Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth
AbstractThis paper examines the extent to which Pakistan's growth has been, or is likely to be, constrained by its balance of payments. Evidence presented suggests that Pakistan's maximum growth rate consistent with equilibrium on the basic balance is approximately 5% per annum. This is below the long-term target GDP growth rate of 7-8% per annum. This balance-of-payments constrained growth approach provides some important implications for Pakistan's development policy. Real exchange rate depreciations will not lead to an improvement in the current account. Pakistan must lift the constraints that impede higher growth in exports. In particular, it must shift its export structure towards more sophisticated products with a higher income elasticity of demand.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Oxford Development Studies.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CODS20
Other versions of this item:
- Felipe, Jesus & McCombie, J. S. L. & Naqvi, Kaukab, 2009. "Is Pakistan’s Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 160, Asian Development Bank.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wacziarg, Romain & Welch, Karen Horn, 2003.
"Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence,"
1826, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979.
"The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007.
"What you export matters,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
- Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "What You Export Matters," NBER Working Papers 11905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hwang, Jason & Rodrik, Dani, 2006. "What You Export Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 5444, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Hwang, Jason & Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "What You Export Matters," Working Paper Series rwp05-063, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Rehana Siddiqui & Naeem Akhtar, 1999. "The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Prices: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1059-1066.
- Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998.
"Inflation crises and long-run growth,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
- P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976.
"Contractionary Effects of Devaluations,"
191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997.
"Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
- Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 107-120.
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
- Miguel A. León-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 1998.
"The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth,"
Studies in Economics
9821, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Penelope Pacheco-Lopez & A. P. Thirlwall, 2007. "Trade Liberalisation and the Trade-Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 469-490.
- Blomström, Magnus & Lipsey, Robert E & Zejan, Mario, 1993.
"Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Krugman, 1988.
"Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
- Kaldor, Nicholas, 1970. "The Case for Regional Policies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 337-48, November.
- Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F50-F72, 02.
- Nelson, Richard R & Pack, Howard, 1999.
"The Asian Miracle and Modern Growth Theory,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 416-36, July.
- Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
- Amjad,Rashid, 2008. "Private Industrial Investment in Pakistan," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521053617, April.
- Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
- Thirlwall, Anthony P & Hussain, Mohammed Nureldin, 1982. "The Balance of Payments Constraint, Capital Flows and Growth Rate Differences between Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 498-510, November.
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- A. Bagnai & A. Rieber & T.A.D. Tran, 2013.
"Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam,"
13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
- Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Anh Dao Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam," a/ Working Papers Series 1302, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
- Rieber, Arsène & Bagnai, Alberto & Tran, Thi Anh-Dao, 2013. "Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11406, Paris Dauphine University.
- Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam," Working Papers DT/2013/06, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
- Chassem, Nacisse Palissy, 2011.
"Hypothèse de Thirlwall: cas des pays de la zone Franc
[Thirlwall’s hypothesis : the case of countries of the Franc Zone]," MPRA Paper 29990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.