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Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?

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  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

  • Anthony P. Thirlwall

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

Abstract

In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the naturalrate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side or demand side. It is shown for a sample of 15 OECD countries 1961-1995 that the natural rate of growth has been very responsive to the actual growth rate, and it is argued that for most countries demand constraints operate long before supply capacity is reached.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 53 (2000)
Issue (Month): 215 ()
Pages: 433-445

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Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:2000:43

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Keywords: Growth; Productivity;

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  1. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
  2. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870, pages 1-23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
  4. McCombie, J S L, 1985. "Increasing Returns and the Manufacturing Industries: Some Empirical Issues," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 53(1), pages 55-75, March.
  5. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  6. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
  8. Fingleton, B & McCombie, J S L, 1998. "Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 89-105, January.
  9. John S. L. McCombie & John R. De Ridder, 1983. "Increasing Returns, Productivity, and Output Growth: The Case of the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 5(3), pages 373-387, April.
  10. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26.
  11. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
  12. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
  13. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  14. Thomas R. Michl, 1985. "International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: Verdoorn's Law Revisited," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(4), pages 474-492, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Datta, Soumya, 2013. "Convergence, cycles and complex dynamics of financing investment," MPRA Paper 52111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2013.
  2. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2001. "On the theory of interest rate policy," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 355-380.
  3. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "A Simple Model Of Demand-Led Growth And Income Distribution," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Matteo Lanzafame, 2006. "The Endogeneity of the Natural Rate of Growth in the Regions of Italy," Studies in Economics 0606, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  5. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate And Elasticity Of Labor Supply In A Balance-Of-Payments-Constrained Macrodynamics," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 11, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  6. Datta, Soumya, 2014. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," MPRA Paper 56713, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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