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Modelling Small Economy Exports: The Case of Singapore

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Author Info
Tilak Abeysinghe () (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
Keen Meng Choy (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)

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Abstract

This paper sheds further light on the debate spearheaded by Riedel (1988) on the specification of a small country export function. The theoretical and empirical analyses in the paper show that while the price-taker assumption cannot be rejected, the export function for Singapore should not be construed as a standard export supply equation. As argued by Kapur (1983) instead, it is an export function with both demand and supply factors playing a role. We arrived at the final model specification by taking into consideration changes in the import content of exports over time. The paper also provides a new methodology for deriving a quarterly series of manufacturing net capital stock.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE in its series SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 0501.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0501

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Related research
Keywords: price taker; demand constraint; export function; import content; restricted cointegrating space;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2000. "Electronics and Growth Cycles in Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(13), pages 1657-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 1998. "Forecasting Singapore's quarterly GDP with monthly external trade," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 505-513, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Riedel, James, 1984. "Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 56-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Athukorala, Premachandra & Riedel, James, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1411-14, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Muscatelli, V A & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, D, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(415), pages 1467-77, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-48, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Muscatelli, V A, 1994. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Reply," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1415-17, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, David, 1992. "Demand and Supply Factors in the Determination of NIE Exports: A Simultaneous Error-Correction Model for Hong Kong Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:4:p:529-57 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Phillips, Peter C B, 1994. "Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 73-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Kapur, Basant K., 1983. "A short-term analytical model of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 355-376, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Harris, David, 1997. "Principal Components Analysis of Cointegrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(04), pages 529-557, August. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2004. "Quarterly real GDP estimates for China and ASEAN4 with a forecast evaluation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 431-447. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Leamer, Edward E, 1981. "Is It a Demand Curve, or Is It a Supply Curve? Partial Identification through Inequality Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 319-27, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Srinivasan, T G & Vines, David, 1990. "The Empirical Modelling of NIE Exports: An Evaluation of Different Approaches," CEPR Discussion Papers 426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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