IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v42y2017icp1021-1029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil

Author

Listed:
  • Babalos, Vassilios
  • Stavroyiannis, Stavros

Abstract

The purpose of the present study is to explicitly model the correlation dynamics of Eurozone sovereign debt markets. Our analysis runs from 2000 through 2014. Time varying correlations are derived from a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (t-cDCC model). We document substantial variability in correlations that is time and region-dependent. Evidence suggests that the Lehman collapse coupled with the German banks’ bailout programme and the events that followed have undermined sovereign debt integration. Moreover, sensitivity analysis provides useful insights that global and regional risk factors play pivotal role in explaining correlation structure both before and after the onset of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. We believe that our results entail important implications for market authorities, international fixed income portfolio diversification and asset allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2017. "Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1021-1029.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1021-1029
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531917301459
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    2. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Afonso, António, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-88, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    3. Caporin, Massimiliano & Pelizzon, Loriana & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rigobon, Roberto, 2018. "Measuring sovereign contagion in Europe," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-181.
    4. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Evolution of International Stock and Bond Market Integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 12, pages 391-428, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    6. Laurent, Sebastien & Peters, Jean-Philippe, 2002. "G@RCH 2.2: An Ox Package for Estimating and Forecasting Various ARCH Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 447-485, July.
    7. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    8. Sutton, Gregory D., 2000. "Is there excess comovement of bond yields between countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 363-376, June.
    9. DeGennaro, Ramon P & Kunkel, Robert A & Lee, Junsoo, 1994. "Modeling International Long-Term Interest Rates," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 577-597, November.
    10. Krylova, Elizaveta, 2016. "Leading indicator properties of corporate bond spreads, excess bond premia and lending spreads in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1911, European Central Bank.
    11. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xindan & Yu, Honghai, 2013. "Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 725-738.
    12. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    13. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds [‘Fiscal policy events and interest rate swap spreads: some evidence from the EU’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532.
    14. Manganelli, Simone & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Market discipline, financial integration and fiscal rules: what drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Working Paper Series 745, European Central Bank.
    15. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    16. Nicoletti, Giulio & Passaro, Raffaele, 2012. "Sometimes it helps: the evolving predictive power of spreads on GDP dynamics," Working Paper Series 1447, European Central Bank.
    17. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    18. Charlotte Christiansen, 2007. "Volatility‐Spillover Effects in European Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(5), pages 923-948, November.
    19. Gorea, Denis & Radev, Deyan, 2014. "The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 78-100.
    20. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2016. "Bond market investor herding: Evidence from the European financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-375.
    21. Cronin, David & Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2016. "Contagion in Eurozone sovereign bond markets? The good, the bad and the ugly," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 5-8.
    22. Barassi, Marco R & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G, 2001. "Irreducibility and Structural Cointegrating Relations: An Application to the G-7 Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 127-138, April.
    23. Pragidis, I.C. & Aielli, G.P. & Chionis, D. & Schizas, P., 2015. "Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 127-138.
    24. Kenneth L. Smith, 2002. "Government Bond Market Seasonality, Diversification, and Cointegration: International Evidence," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 203-221, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azra Zaimovic & Adna Omanovic & Almira Arnaut-Berilo, 2021. "How Many Stocks Are Sufficient for Equity Portfolio Diversification? A Review of the Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. T. Flavin & M.Dongey & L. Sheenan, 2020. "Banks and Sovereigns: Did adversity bring them closer?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n307-20.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    3. Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmed Rostom & Erk Hacihasanoglu, 2019. "Dynamic integration and network structure of the EMU sovereign bond markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 297-314, October.
    4. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?," Working Papers 14-08, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    5. Paweł Tobera, 2019. "Ocena ratingowa a koszt obsługi długu publicznego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 2005–2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Pedio, Manuela, 2017. "Identifying and measuring the contagion channels at work in the European financial crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 117-134.
    7. Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2013. "Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 161-176.
    8. Samir Kadiric, 2020. "The determinants of sovereign risk premiums in the UK and the European government bond market: The impact of Brexit," EIIW Discussion paper disbei271, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    9. Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ballester, Laura & Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Carchano, Oscar & Dimic, Nebojsa & Fernandez, Viviana & Gogolin, Fabian & González-Urteaga, Ana , 2018. "Future directions in international financial integration research - A crowdsourced perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 35-49.
    10. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    11. Perego, Erica, 2020. "Sovereign risk and asset market dynamics in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    13. Ludwig, Alexander, 2014. "A unified approach to investigate pure and wake-up-call contagion: Evidence from the Eurozone's first financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 125-146.
    14. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 337-352.
    15. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Causes and hazards of the euro area sovereign debt crisis: Pure and fundamentals-based contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 133-147.
    16. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Xiao-Fen Zheng & Tom Fong, 2015. "Measuring Contagion-Induced Funding Liquidity Risk in Sovereign Debt Markets," Working Papers 182015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    17. Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2017. "Time varying contagion in EMU government bond spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 72-91.
    18. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    19. Stelios Bekiros & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2018. "Sovereign bond market dependencies and crisis transmission around the eurozone debt crisis: a dynamic copula approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(47), pages 5031-5049, October.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Convergence patterns in sovereign bond yield spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    G10; G15; Sovereign credit markets; Asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation; Sovereign debt crisis; Panel analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1021-1029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.