Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Government Bond Market Seasonality, Diversification, and Cointegration: International Evidence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kenneth L. Smith
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Using government bond market data for the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Japan, I investigate several hypotheses. Market efficiency is investigated by testing for seasonality and cointegration. The seasonality results are mixed. In regression tests, a January effect is detected in several markets (United States, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Canada) using local currencies. However, in a nonparametric test, the January effect is supported only for France. When U.S. dollar returns are used, regression results also reveal a January effect for several markets (United States, Germany, France, and United Kingdom). These results are not confirmed by a nonparametric test. Correlation analysis shows considerable diversification opportunities for short-term investors. Cointegration tests indicate that several of the markets share cointegrating vectors, increasing the possibilities of using other endogenous bond markets to better predict movements in a particular market. Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-6803.t01-1-00004
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Financial Research.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 203-221

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:203-221

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
    More information through EDIRC

    Email:
    Web page: http://www.southwesternfinance.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0270-2592

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    2. Marie Briere & Ariane Chapelle & Ariane Szafarz, 2012. "No Contagion, only Globalization and Flight to Quality," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/149092, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
    4. Marie Briere & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "Crisis-Robust Bond Portfolios," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14150, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Brian M Lucey & Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2005. "Dynamics of Bond Market Integration between Existing And Accession EU Countries," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp025, IIIS.
    6. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Smith, Kenneth L. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2008. "The dynamics among G7 government bond and equity markets and the implications for international capital market diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 222-245, June.
    8. He, Hui & Locke, Peter, 2011. "Global trends in real risk free rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-63, January.
    9. Kim, Suk-Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Evolution of international stock and bond market integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1507-1534, May.
    10. Ciner, Cetin, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between international bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 290-303, October.
    11. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    12. Jeon, Bang Nam & Ji, Philip & Zhang, Hongfang, 2012. "International linkages of Japanese bond markets: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 36929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2012.
    13. Piljak, Vanja, 2013. "Bond markets co-movement dynamics and macroeconomic factors: Evidence from emerging and frontier markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 29-43.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:203-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.