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On rational exuberance

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  • Bosi, Stefano
  • Seegmuller, Thomas

Abstract

In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converge to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and an asset paper, which behaves as a bubble. Collaterals matter because increasing the amount of capital and asset paper in the portfolio, the household reduces the share of consumption paid in cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive are recommended in order to rule out the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematical Social Sciences.

Volume (Year): 59 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 249-270

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Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:59:y:2010:i:2:p:249-270

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505565

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Keywords: Bubbles Collaterals Indeterminacy Cash-in-advance constraint Overlapping generations;

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References

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  1. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  2. Azariadis, Costas & Reichlin, Pietro, 1996. "Increasing returns and crowding out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 847-877, May.
  3. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2005. "Cash-In-Advance Constraints, Bubbles, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 28-56, February.
  4. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
  5. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521806428.
  6. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  7. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
  8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  9. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  10. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: The (De-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy," Working Papers halshs-00793063, HAL.
  2. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2012. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00673892, HAL.
  3. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2012. "Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. The(De-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy," AMSE Working Papers 1207, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 23 Mar 2012.
  4. Barbar, Riham & Bosi, Stefano, 2010. "Collaterals and macroeconomic volatility," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 146-161, September.
  5. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2012. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," Post-Print halshs-00673892, HAL.

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