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On rational exuberance

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  • Bosi, Stefano
  • Seegmuller, Thomas

Abstract

In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converge to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and an asset paper, which behaves as a bubble. Collaterals matter because increasing the amount of capital and asset paper in the portfolio, the household reduces the share of consumption paid in cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive are recommended in order to rule out the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematical Social Sciences.

Volume (Year): 59 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 249-270

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Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:59:y:2010:i:2:p:249-270

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505565

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Keywords: Bubbles Collaterals Indeterminacy Cash-in-advance constraint Overlapping generations;

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References

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  1. Azariadis, Costas & Reichlin, Pietro, 1996. "Increasing returns and crowding out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 847-877, May.
  2. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2005. "Cash-In-Advance Constraints, Bubbles, And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 28-56, February.
  3. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
  5. Michel, Philippe & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 2003. "Temporary bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 173-183, September.
  6. Bosi, Stefano & Magris, Francesco, 2003. "Indeterminacy and endogenous fluctuations with arbitrarily small liquidity constraint," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 39-51, March.
  7. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00268861 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, October.
  10. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  11. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  12. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2012. "Rational Bubbles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. The(De-)Stabilizing Role of Monetary Policy," AMSE Working Papers 1207, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 23 Mar 2012.
  2. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2013. "The Stabilizing Virtues of Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy on Endogenous Bubble Fluctuations," Working Papers halshs-00854536, HAL.
  3. Bertrand Wigniolle, 2012. "Optimism, pessimism and financial bubbles," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" halshs-00673892, HAL.
  4. Thomas Seegmuller & Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard, 2013. "The Stabilizing Virtues of Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy on Endogenous Bubble Fluctuations," AMSE Working Papers 1343, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 17 Aug 2013.
  5. Barbar, Riham & Bosi, Stefano, 2010. "Collaterals and macroeconomic volatility," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 146-161, September.
  6. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00673892 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00673892 is not listed on IDEAS

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