IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v83y2023ics0301420723003690.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Bossman, Ahmed

Abstract

Oil is an energy resource and a driver of global economic activities. The increasing need for oil amplifies its trade and places pressure on the current account balance, which causes exchange rate fluctuations. We transcend the mean-based connectedness measures to explore the oil shocks-exchange rates nexus from an asymmetric perspective. With daily data from 07-03–1996 to 22-08-2022, we analyse the quantile dynamic spillovers between oil price shocks and exchange rates of oil-exporting and oil-importing economies. We show that shock sizes shape the system returns and volatility connectedness, with lower-tailed and upper-tailed shocks having a greater influence on the system connectedness than shocks modelled at the conditional median. By demonstrating asymmetry, the findings emphasise that for a detailed comprehension of the oil shocks-exchange rates connectedness under extreme shocks, it is necessary to go beyond mean-based connectedness metrics. The implications of our findings are important for investors, policymakers, and practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:83:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723003690
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723003690
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103658?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Vo, Xuan vinh, 2022. "COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    3. Shafi Madhkar Alsubaie & Khaled H. Mahmoud & Ahmed Bossman & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Stefan Cristian Gherghina, 2022. "Vulnerability of Sustainable Islamic Stock Returns to Implied Market Volatilities: An Asymmetric Approach," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-22, July.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    5. Umechukwu, Chisom & Olayungbo, D.O., 2022. "US oil supply shocks and economies of oil-exporting African countries: A GVAR-Oil Resource Analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    8. Xiaoming Zhang & Hegang Zhou & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "Systemic Risk of China’s Financial Industry during the Spread of the COVID-19 Epidemic and the Breakdown of Crude Oil Negotiation," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 56-69, January.
    9. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007. "China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
    10. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Cai, Yifei & Zhang, Dongna & Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Macroeconomic outcomes of OPEC and non-OPEC oil supply shocks in the euro area," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Pham, Linh & Teplova, Tamara & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "COVID-19 and the quantile connectedness between energy and metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    15. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    16. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Junior, Peterson Owusu, 2022. "A new ICEEMDAN-based transfer entropy quantifying information flow between real estate and policy uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 189-205.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    18. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    19. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    20. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    21. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Arifli, Arif, 2021. "Oil price shocks, exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuations in a small oil-exporting economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    22. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    23. Robert C Ready, 2018. "Oil Prices and the Stock Market [The vix, the variance premium and stock market volatility]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 155-176.
    24. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    25. Khandokar Istiak & Md Rafayet Alam, 2019. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(2), pages 324-334, March.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Sahar Bahmani, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the demand for money in Turkey?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(42), pages 4261-4270, September.
    27. Shafi Madhkar Alsubaie & Khaled H. Mahmoud & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei & Ahmed Bossman & Gang Jin Wang, 2023. "Time-Frequency Connectedness between Shariah Indices in a Systemic Crisis Era," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2023, pages 1-17, February.
    28. Mohammed Armah & Godfred Amewu & Ahmed Bossman, 2022. "Time-frequency analysis of financial stress and global commodities prices: Insights from wavelet-based approaches," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2114161-211, December.
    29. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    30. Maurizio Michael Habib & Sascha Bützer & Livio Stracca, 2016. "Global Exchange Rate Configurations: Do Oil Shocks Matter?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 443-470, August.
    31. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    32. Zaghum Umar & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Asymmetric Return and Volatility Transmission in Conventional and Islamic Equities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, March.
    33. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    34. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Modelling the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 on REIT returns: A quantile-on-quantile regression analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    35. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    36. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    37. Umar, Zaghum & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2019. "Hedging U.S. metals & mining Industry's credit risk with industrial and precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    38. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    39. Qiang Ji & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    40. Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Yuxing Li, 2022. "Diversification Benefits between Stock Returns from Ghana and Jamaica: Insights from Time-Frequency and VMD-Based Asymmetric Quantile-on-Quantile Analysis," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-16, September.
    41. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Measuring extreme risk spillovers across international stock markets: A quantile variance decomposition analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    42. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    43. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    44. Zhang, Wenting & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    45. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2017. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-103.
    46. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "COVID–19 media coverage and ESG leader indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    47. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2017. "Do Exchange Rate Changes Have Symmetric or Asymmetric Effects on the Demand for Money in Korea? ," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 9(2), pages 155-168, December.
    48. Yasir Riaz & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Zaghum Umar, 2019. "Pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating changes on stock returns: a fact or factoid?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(15), pages 1588-1601, March.
    49. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji, 2014. "The effects of oil shocks on government expenditures and government revenues nexus (with an application to Iran's sanctions)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 299-313.
    50. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    51. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    52. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    53. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    54. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    55. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    56. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kanitpong, 2017. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balances of Asian countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(46), pages 4668-4678, October.
    57. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    58. Liu, Min & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Is gold a long-run hedge, diversifier, or safe haven for oil? Empirical evidence based on DCC-MIDAS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    59. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness among the implied volatilities of oil prices and financial assets: New evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 114-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Forhad, Md. Abdur Rahman & Alam, Md. Rafayet, 2022. "Impact of oil demand and supply shocks on the exchange rates of selected Southeast Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Umar, Zaghum & Abrar, Afsheen & Hadhri, Sinda & Sokolova, Tatiana, 2023. "The connectedness of oil shocks, green bonds, sukuks and conventional bonds," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    6. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    7. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    8. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Sophio Togonidze & Evzen Kocenda, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil-Price Shocks to Emerging Economies: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers IES 2022/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2022.
    10. Malik, Farooq & Umar, Zaghum, 2019. "Dynamic connectedness of oil price shocks and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Xu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates: A non-linear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adetokunbo, Abiodun M., 2021. "On the connection between oil and global foreign exchange markets: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Alfred A. Haug & Syed Abul Basher, 2019. "Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5282-5296, October.
    14. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    15. Sokhanvar, Amin & Çiftçioğlu, Serhan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "The effect of energy price shocks on commodity currencies during the war in Ukraine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    17. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    19. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; Exchange rates; Quantile spillovers; Quantile connectedness; Brexit; COVID-19; Russia-Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:83:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723003690. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.