Fiscal stringency and fiscal sustainability: Panel evidence from the American state and local governments
AbstractMost state (and local) governments in the U.S. operate under formal fiscal rules which limit their ability to run budget deficits and resort to debt financing. A priori, one would expect to find evidence in favor of an intertemporally balanced budget, or fiscal sustainability, for these states, especially those characterized by a relatively high degree of fiscal stringency. We test this hypothesis for a panel of 47 state–local government units (1961–2006) using four budget balance definitions and several subsamples defined based on regional classifications, or presence of certain balanced budget requirements (BBRs). Our results, obtained from panel estimation techniques that allow for general forms of serial and cross-sectional dependence, suggest that a sufficient condition for “strong” sustainability is consistently satisfied for the full sample and all subsamples in relation to balances that include special funds and/or federal grants. However, we find evidence consistent with the “weak” version of sustainability for the full sample and some regional subsamples (particularly Far West dominated by California) in at least one of the two balances that exclude these items. Finally, the BBRs seem to matter only in relation to the sustainability of the more narrowly defined balances. We discuss the implications of these findings for the role of fiscal rules and federal grant policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.
Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735
Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal stringency; Balance budget rules; State budget; Public finance; Panel cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003.
"A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1994.
"The political economy of fiscal restrictions: Implications for Europe from the United States,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 783-791, April.
- Barry Eichengreen and Tamim Bayoumi., 1993. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Restrictions: Implications for Europe from the United States," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-020, University of California at Berkeley.
- Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
- Jushan Bai & Chihwa Kao, 2005. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Panel Cointegration Model with Cross-Sectional Dependence," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 75, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008.
"A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, 03.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Ullah, A. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Case, Anne C. & Rosen, Harvey S. & Hines, James Jr., 1993. "Budget spillovers and fiscal policy interdependence : Evidence from the states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 285-307, October.
- Martin, G.M., 1998.
"U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Robert Krol & Shirley Svorny, 2007. "Budget Rules and State Business Cycles," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(4), pages 530-544, July.
- Kia, Amir, 2008. "Fiscal sustainability in emerging countries: Evidence from Iran and Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 957-972.
- Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999.
"Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: US State and Local Governments 1978-1994,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sorensen, Bent E. & Wu, Lisa & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Output fluctuations and fiscal policy: U.S. state and local governments 1978-1994," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1271-1310.
- Sorensen, B.E. & Wu, L. & Yosha, O., 1999. "Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: U.S. State and Local Governments 1978-1994," Papers 22-99, Tel Aviv.
- Bent E. Sorensen & Lisa Wu & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Output fluctuations and fiscal policy : U.S. state and local governments 1978-1994," Research Working Paper 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
- Henning Bohn & Robert P. Inman, 1996.
"Balanced Budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States,"
NBER Working Papers
5533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bohn, Henning & Inman, Robert P., 1996. "Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 13-76, December.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Tom Doan, . "BAING: RATS procedure to estimate factors in a factor model using Bai-Ng formulas," Statistical Software Components RTS00012, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Federico Revelli, 2004.
"Performance Rating and Yardstick Competition in Social Service Provision,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1270, CESifo Group Munich.
- Revelli, Federico, 2006. "Performance rating and yardstick competition in social service provision," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 459-475, February.
- Federico Revelli, 2002. "Testing the taxmimicking versus expenditure spill-over hypotheses using English data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(14), pages 1723-1731.
- Yilin Hou & Daniel Smith, 2010. "Do state balanced budget requirements matter? Testing two explanatory frameworks," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 57-79, October.
- Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
- Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012.
"Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability,"
Ifo Working Paper Series
Ifo Working Paper No. 141, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," CESifo Working Paper Series 3948, CESifo Group Munich.
- C. Randall Henning & Martin Kessler, 2012.
"Fiscal Federalism: US History for Architects of Europe's Fiscal Union,"
Working Paper Series
WP12-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- C. Randall Henning & Martin Kessler, 2012. "Fiscal federalism: US history for architects of Europe's fiscal union," Essays and Lectures 669, Bruegel.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.