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Chinese accession to the WTO: Economic implications for China, other Asian and North American economies

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  • Ghosh, Madanmohan
  • Rao, Someshwar

Abstract

This paper, using a dynamic, multi-sector and multi-country Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, analyses the combined economic impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers on textiles and apparel by the industrialized countries in China and North America and other major economies. The combined impacts of these two policy initiatives are studied in detail on trade flows, real output, employment and investment both at the aggregate and industry levels in China, the U.S., Canada and other countries/regions. The simulation results suggest that China's real gross domestic product (GDP) would increase by over 2 percent, mainly due to a large increase in the output of textiles and apparel industries. India too would gain considerably in these two industries from the removal of the trade barriers. Textiles and apparel industries will face considerable adjustment challenges in North America particularly in the U.S. and Canada, implying output and employment losses ranging between 20 and 30 percent. However, the output and employment gains in other North American industries will be more than offset the losses in textiles and apparel industries. Bilateral trade between China and North American economies would increase between 15 and 20 percent, but over all economic gain would be modest. Asian economies will also experience significant increase in trade with China and the output impacts are positive but modest.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 389-398

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:3:p:389-398

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: Regional trade agreements Free trade Dynamic General Equilibrium Model;

References

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  1. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
  2. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
  3. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Trade Liberalization in China’s Accession to WTO," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 421-445.
  4. Wang, Zhi, 2003. "The impact of China's WTO accession on patterns of world trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, January.
  5. Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.
  6. Ghosh, Madanmohan & Rao, Someshwar, 2005. "A Canada-U.S. customs union: Potential economic impacts in NAFTA countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 805-827, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2013. "The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change," Economics Working Papers 1388, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  2. Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, . "The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: a Quantitative Assessment," Working Papers 637, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  3. Jing Zhang, 2013. "Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technology Change," 2013 Meeting Papers 630, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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