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Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets

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  • Anarkulova, Aizhan
  • Cederburg, Scott
  • O’Doherty, Michael S.

Abstract

We characterize the distribution of long-term equity returns based on the historical record of stock market performance in a broad cross section of 39 developed countries over the period from 1841 to 2019. Our comprehensive sample mitigates concerns over survivor and easy data biases that plague other work in this area. A bootstrap simulation analysis implies substantial uncertainty about long-horizon stock market outcomes, and we estimate a 12% chance that a diversified investor with a 30-year investment horizon will lose relative to inflation. The results contradict the conventional advice that stocks are safe investments over long holding periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Anarkulova, Aizhan & Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2022. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from a broad sample of developed markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 409-433.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:143:y:2022:i:1:p:409-433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.040
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    2. Xu, Ruihui & Zhang, Xuliang & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Yan, Cheng, 2023. "Investor flow-chasing and price–performance puzzle: Evidence from global infrastructure funds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Marc Chen & Mohammad Shirazi & Peter A. Forsyth & Yuying Li, 2023. "Machine Learning and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation for Optimal Decumulation: a Comparison Study," Papers 2306.10582, arXiv.org.
    4. Peter A. Forsyth & Kenneth R. Vetzal & G. Westmacott, 2022. "Optimal performance of a tontine overlay subject to withdrawal constraints," Papers 2211.10509, arXiv.org.
    5. Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2023. "Are benchmark stock indices, precious metals or cryptocurrencies efficient hedges against crises?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Pieter M. van Staden & Peter A. Forsyth & Yuying Li, 2023. "A parsimonious neural network approach to solve portfolio optimization problems without using dynamic programming," Papers 2303.08968, arXiv.org.
    7. Kroencke, Tim A., 2022. "Recessions and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 61-77.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-horizon stock returns; Loss probability; Survivor bias; Easy data bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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